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Why are experts consistently wrong?

Discussion in 'Educating Doctors' started by Jack Kruse, Oct 12, 2020.

  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Why experts must be challenged: Nutritionists and dieticians told us that eggs were bad (cholesterol) and "healthy grains" (cereals/bread, etc) were essential. It's not that they were wrong, they were completely 180 degrees wrong, yet they were all qualified; some had PhDs. Virology experts have been dead wrong on C19.
    When "experts" wrong, they’re rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. They insist that they were just off on timing, or blindsided by an improbable event, or almost right, or wrong for the right reasons. They have the same repertoire of self-justifications that everyone has, and are no more inclined than anyone else to revise their beliefs about the way the world works, or ought to work, just because they made a mistake.
    Experts fall into two “cognitive styles” when they’re making predictions: foxes and hedgehogs. Foxes know many things while hedgehogs know one big thing. Being deeply knowledgeable on one subject narrows one’s focus and increases confidence, but it also blurs dissenting views until they are no longer visible, thereby transforming data collection into bias confirmation and morphing self-deception into self-assurance. The world is a messy, complex, and contingent place with countless intervening variables and confounding factors, which foxes are comfortable with but hedgehogs are not. https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsa...rts-always-seem-to-get-it-wrong/#466ea1ec3a36
  2. The respect for intellectual property of individuals, research groups and organization is no longer upheld.

    This is why I’m glad Dr Jack Kruse had the smarts to put this forum and blog behind a “paid wall”.

    As my grandmother told me, “Johnny, locks only keep honest men honest. A real thief will always make a way in.”

    Today the burglars are government agencies, taking what they want, “silencing” whistle blowers, then misrepresenting the data in name of what is “better” for society.

    It takes guts to do what Jack has done. Thank you -> Jack

    Last edited: Oct 13, 2020

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