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TIME & BTC.......

Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Apr 10, 2021.

  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    What is the vital signs for Time in the BTC ecosystem I use?

    1. Hashrate
    2. The Reserve Risk is defined as price/HODL Bank. This vital sign is used to assess the confidence of long-term holders relative to the price of the native coin at any given point in time.
    3. If the Reserve Risk is still relatively low compared to previous peaks, it implies that Bitcoin is not at risk of nearing a macro top in this bull run. Currently, the Reserve Risk of Bitcoin is at half the level seen in 2013, 2014, and 2017, when the price of Bitcoin crashed by well over 50% and entered a bear market.

    Time in physics is relative and thought to be created and acts as emergent phenomena due to the collection of how the physical forces operate at different scales. The difficulty adjustment is the emergent phenomena in the BTC algorithm that causes time to be hidden, but the effect of time affects the outcome. The cause of time is hidden, but the result is known.

    4/10/21 Miner Update is a metabolic assessment update
    First, some fundamentals. Bitcoin's average hash rate hit a new ATH yesterday – crossing a daily average of 178 exahash / sec for the first time in history. Miners keep spinning up machines – hash rate is up only. http://glassno.de/3utg7bU

    In fact, mining difficulty increased by 5.8% last Friday – to a new ATH as well. The difficulty adjustment is up 66% over the past year and 24% YTD. There's your post-halving "MiNeR CaPiTuLaTioN". Chart: http://glassno.de/3cStxIv
    BTC miners have been making more than $50 Million per day for the past month. Put into perspective: A year ago this number was around $12 Million – that's a 4x increase, despite the block subsidy being cut in half. Important data point! Chart: http://glassno.de/3cUwV5J

    Are BTC miners selling? I don't think so. We saw increased outflows in the run-up to $40, but the miner position change has turned back positive. Also, note that these on-chain miner volumes are not significant compared to the rest of the network. http://glassno.de/31V1TUU

    In fact, BTC unspent supply (BTC that has never left the original mining addresses), has started to increase again after a quick and sharp drop of around 15k BTC at the beginning of the year. More hodling than spending. Chart: http://glassno.de/3mnL4LQ

    Direct BTC transfers from miners to exchange wallets have been going back down significantly. Even USD-dominated miner to exchange volume has decreased despite a stable price. Again, note that the absolute volumes are fairly low compared to the network. http://glassno.de/3fQCEvg

    The BTC Miner Outflow Multiple (quantifies current miner outflows with respect to its historical average) is around 50% from the peak in 2017. It came back down after shortly crossing 4. No miner sell-out to spot here. Rather it implies massive room to grow. http://glassno.de/31QZavT

    All this implies very strong miner metrics right now. They are exhibiting great fundamentals, bullish long-term – selling or capitulation not in sight. Imo miners have little to no incentives to be cashing out now and have other means to cover capex and opex (e.g. borrowing). As always, all data from
    glassnode
     

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