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The BTC thread: When you need some answers, love, advice, or friendship......come here.

Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Jan 3, 2021.

  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  2. Anne V

    Anne V Silver

  3. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Treasury is listed in fiat US$.
    Just to break even with the trillions of new $$ being printed
    S&P500 or Dow Jones should grow 15 to 20% yearly

    There is a number of speculative dates listed by Jack, using a variety of reasons as the basis of speculations.
    one of them is
    August -November of 2021
    I put it in my footer.
    There are some more nearby the above, listed in BTC #18
    Those dates
    are times when BTC should stop or slow down its growth.
    Possibly then will be a good time to convert a small portion of it to the currency that would allow us for grocery shopping.

    price movement from Feb to October 2021 is predicted by many models to be staggering.

    the run that is coming from February 2021 until November might blow your mind.
    ============================================================================
    What to do after the (temporary) top is reached, I am not sure.
    HODL and allow price movement of +0 to -80% or so
    or
    get off the market (and miss the next growth ) (if everybody listens to that it would cause a crash)

    Hopefully, as time progresses Jack will come up with some guesses of what to do.

    So far it is a golden ride. (Thank you Jack.)
    --
     
    John Schumacher and Martina like this.
  4. Janek

    Janek Gold

    Money velocity is the most useless economical indicator ever. It measures literally nothing. It will always go down when divisor goes to infinity. Divisor (M2 money supply) is also useless indicator because all central bank can do is force banks to sell UST so they get $ on CB's accounts that banks can use to lend against it. But if there are no borrowers there is no real money supply growth. Fiat money is debt money and eventually all debts need to be paid back which increases demand for dollars and is deflationary in principle. QE money cannot enter market, it's just fiscal operation to create illusion of inflation because inflation is psychological phenomenon and deflation is the worst that could happen.

    Also opposite is true and bond market is not betting on inflation. If it would do so rates would be around inflation forecasts.

    This is how bond' yield and inflation looks like:

    [​IMG]


    Here US:
    [​IMG]
    on the left inflation, on the right US10 yield. Clear correlation.

    So all bond market is screaming is DEFLATION. US bond market so far is the most important market in the world. It's not runned by reddit gamblers nor tesla clowns.

    Also I disagree that risky assets win in liquidity traps. When there are no bidders risky assets go to 0 just like it happened to bitcoin in march. When overleveraged funds and individuals get margin called they have to sell their winners, that is bitcoin and all tech stocks. That's why I'm so strongly against leveraging your bitcoin. If market crashes and you store ur bitcoin safely nothing will happened, over time it will get its value back and keep growing. But if you got margin called and lose ur bitcoin you are ruined forever.


    So what I believe will happen dollar will spike and it will be tsunami for all markets. After that we may see strong monetary interventions like 1930's New Deal.

    Got my bitcoins, got my gold, got my dollars to buy more of these two. Market will verify my thesis.

    I can be dead wrong and we may see weimar inflation but my bitcoin will protect me and I will still make money.
     
  5. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Janek, trzymaj się ciepło.
    Speaking about leveraging.
    @Jack Kruse has no problem in taking home equity loans to buy bitcoins.
    He mortgaged his two houses.
    I have not seen Jack advising taking a margin on bitcoins from brokers to buy more bitcoins.
    IIRC, Jack later clarified, to buy Bitcoin using only half of your wealth.
    -----
    I would add, that it is a good idea to keep an eye on your yearly expenses, especially taxes, utilities, rent, food, transportation, mortgage payments. Those that are hard to avoid.
    I like to keep at least 5 years' cash reserves for that, seven better.
    I do not work since June 1997.

    upload_2021-2-23_6-43-23.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2021
  6. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Explain expectations of each.
    .
     
  7. Janek

    Janek Gold

    Actually outcome for both is the same - hyperinflation. Question is how we get there. Did it already start or we gonna see one more deflationary bust? I don't know that.
    In 2018 I saw Dr talking a lot about Tesla. I decided to read a little about it and I get into rabbit hole. I sold my flat in Sep 2019 because crash was obvious for me at this point. People thought I'm crazy thinking bitcoin will ever go above 20k.

    Also keep in mind everybody's situation is different. Dr got positive cash flows from patronite, members, consultations etc. He can pay his bills, pay his loans and save some cash to buy bitcoin. That's why I'm against one-fit-all solutions and going crazy all-in into bitcoin.

    We are in the same team. I just have some doubts but it doesn't mean I oppose bitcoin.

    [​IMG]

    Btw, I minned my first bitcoin in 2011. Sold it for $20 and bought cool Nike shoes, lol. Then got interested on top of 2017 bubble but did not join the party and since than I was waiting for next bull run.
     
    caroline, Martina, JanSz and 2 others like this.
  8. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Bitcoin is cryptocurrency.
    I am assuming that GBTC is not.
    @Jack Kruse
    upload_2021-2-24_17-4-0.png
     
  9. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Those shoes now cost you 50K.
     
  10. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    ^^^^^someday in your lifetime they will be worth over a Trillion dollars.
     
    DebraGM likes this.
  11. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    The problem with that trillion US$ is that
    dozen of oysters with one pound of bacon will also cost a trillion.''
    ..
     
    zohar, Anne V, caroline and 1 other person like this.
  12. Martina

    Martina Gold

    That's so funny
     
  13. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    I doubt that will be the case after renormalization JanSz

    Bitcoin is a technology, like a hammer or the wheel, that survives for the same reason any other technology survives: it provides benefits to those who use it. It can be understood as a spontaneously emergent protocol that serves as a new form of uninflatable money and an unstoppable payments channel. Structurally, the Bitcoin network reflects a quintessential manifestation commonly found in nature.
     
    Alex97232 and GavinH like this.
  14. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Bitcoin or some crypto is supposed to represent the real honest value, honesty openly checked by almost everybody.
    What you just said (optimistically) is that the US$ will still be in use as currency.

    Under the previous president, one trillion US$ was added.
    This new guy is just starting his tern by adding two trillion, (pocketing some small amount of billions for his family) and killing any real production in the USA of anything.
    If all goes smoothly we will have 15-20% inflation every year for the next 5 - 10 years.
    If it will be less than smooth, the rest of the world will stop using US$ (and pay for our privileged status). Then we will find out the real value of US$.

    .
     
    John Schumacher likes this.
  15. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    https://forum.jackkruse.com/index.p...ncy-has-to-collapse-as-i-said-in-btc-6.25592/
    upload_2021-2-25_12-34-18.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    John Schumacher likes this.
  16. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Those who learn history from freshly printed history books are blind.
    History repeats itself, and they are actively being prevented from learning actual history.
    This is where this (formerly) great country is going. A way Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth went.

    Note
    Wikipedia has been accused of massaging some stories, so who knows what they did for this part.

    First Partition of Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Partition_of_Poland
    upload_2021-2-25_12-43-0.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    John Schumacher likes this.
  17. Janek

    Janek Gold

    WIse man told me: "My prayer has always been do not grant me success if it will corrupt my soul. And the Lord has been faithful in answering this prayer."
     
  18. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

  19. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    upload_2021-2-27_9-41-32.png
     
    GavinH likes this.
  20. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

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