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The BTC thread: When you need some answers, love, advice, or friendship......come here.

Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Jan 3, 2021.

  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    What does the opportunity cost look like for your health/wealth pillars?

    Grab the receipts for all the expensive shit you ever bought

    Write down how much it was worth in BTC at the date of purchase

    Sum it all up

    Multiply by $34,000

    This is your BTC tuition cost right now early in 2021.

    Become wiser now after you see that number.

    The market cap of BTC is remarkably still <$1T, we remain early in this game. It is still a buy and you still have time to unbank yourself and decentralize your life.
  2. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Today is Bitcoin's birthday Jan 3rd,

    [​IMG] In its 12 years, this completely free-market monetary system has already become more valuable than all banks, and all but 15 national currencies and has fully refuted the dangerous Keynesian dogma that money needs government backing to work.
    On January 3, 2009, Satoshi released Bitcoin to the world. Bitcoin gives humankind our best shot at freedom. Thank you Satoshi.

    PS to the skeptics: Fads don’t typically last 12 years... Happy Birthday BTC
  3. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    To investors,

    I sent an email last night to a group of friends in October 2020. These individuals are across industries, but they all share a common interest in investing. I thought it would be worth sharing with each of you as well. This is not investment advice, so do your own research. Hope you enjoy it.

    We sit at an unprecedented time in the macro-economy, so I wanted to send you a message with my “best idea.”

    The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to 0%. They plan to keep us in a zero-rate environment for the foreseeable future. Multiple stimulus packages in 2020 now total more than $3 trillion in QE. We have another $2 trillion on the way. The Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by 75% since the start of the year. While there is a strong argument that this QE won’t lead to higher inflation because of the current deflationary environment, the Fed has publicly committed to sustaining a 2%+ inflation level.

    The average investor fears inflation right now, regardless of whether we actually see that inflation or not. This fear has driven significant capital flows into inflation-hedge assets (Gold, Bitcoin, Real estate, etc). The combination of the Fed’s asset price manipulation and inflation fears has driven gold and Bitcoin to drastically outperform equities and other commodities.

    I’m writing this specifically to call out my thesis for the next 15 months of Bitcoin’s performance. Many investors will look at the historical price increase of the digital asset and believe they “missed it.” That couldn’t be further from the truth in my opinion. I believe we are at the start of another boom cycle in Bitcoin, which is likely to drive us 10-20x higher in the 15-month window.

    Let’s first look at the demand side of the equation. The macro-environment is serving as a tailwind. Bitcoin is up more than 50% year-to-date. The continued 0 rate environment and QE will continue to drive demand. Additionally, we are seeing traditional asset management firms start to make the leap into owning Bitcoin. Fidelity Investments recently published a paper showing a positive impact for 1%-5% Bitcoin allocation in clients’ portfolios. Stone Ridge ($10B asset manager) now owns $115M in Bitcoin. Paul Tudor Jones publicly revealed that he has put 2% of his assets into Bitcoin. Multiple public pensions in the US have now gained exposure to Bitcoin via fund managers. Grayscale, the largest digital asset investment manager, saw record inflows of $1B+ in 3Q20 and now has almost $6B in total AUM.

    The list goes on and on. Wall Street has woken up to the Bitcoin trade. But the increase in demand is not only happening with traditional asset managers. We are also seeing a new trend emerge where corporations are using Bitcoin as a reserve asset for part or majority of their treasury. It started with publicly traded digital asset focused firms like Galaxy Digital and others. Then we saw MicroStrategy ($1.2B+ market cap on NASDAQ) put 85% of their $500M balance sheet ($425M) into Bitcoin. And most recently, financial technology company Square announced that it had purchased about $50M of Bitcoin for its balance sheet (approximately 1% of assets).

    This increase in demand is just starting in my opinion. We can list all of the leading, forward-thinking firms in only two paragraphs. Eventually, their peers will join them. The demand outlook is strong, and it shows signs of actually accelerating into the first half of 2021.

    This brings us to the supply side of the price discussion.

    Bitcoin only has 21 million total Bitcoin that will ever be available. There are approximately 18.4 million currently in circulation. New Bitcoin enters the market on a pre-determined schedule that is coded into software and cannot be changed without agreement from 51% or more people (highly unlikely it will ever change). That programmatic monetary supply schedule started in 2009 with 7,200 Bitcoin entering circulation every day. That continued for 4 years, before the 7,200 daily Bitcoin was cut to 3,600 Bitcoin each day. 4 years later it was cut to 1,800 Bitcoin per day. Most recently, in May 2020, we experienced the latest “Bitcoin halving” which now has 900 Bitcoin per day entering the circulating supply.

    Historically, these supply shocks have led to significant price increases of 20X+ in the following 18 months post-halving. So to recap, we have significant increases in demand and a material supply shock that has historically led to a price increase. Just those two factors alone should be compelling enough to ensure that you have some exposure (1-10% of your portfolio) to Bitcoin. The asymmetric risk-reward scenario is unlikely to be present in any other asset you are currently invested in.

    There is a third factor that you should understand, which further cements the bullish argument for Bitcoin over the next 15 months or so. More than 60% of all Bitcoin in circulation today have not changed hands in the last 12 months. This means that the majority of Bitcoin investors stomached multiple double-digit price movements, both up and down, and continued to hold the asset. They even weathered a 50% drop in price during a single day of the liquidity crisis in March 2020 without selling. So the likelihood that the 11M+ Bitcoin that is currently being held by strong hands will trade in the short term is very low.

    You could evaluate this situation as (a) demand is increasing significantly, (b) the supply shock is making Bitcoin more scarce, and (c) the available float is much smaller than people actually realize. This framework leads me to believe that we are going to see a violent upward movement in the Bitcoin price by the end of 2021. My base case is approximately 10x to $100,000 and the bull case is around $250,000 per Bitcoin.

    The asset is volatile, and it won’t be a straight line up. There will be many 15-30% drawdowns along the way, but I remain convicted that these price levels are attainable in the next 15 months. Lastly, if we take a longer outlook at Bitcoin, it becomes even more interesting.

    Both gold and Bitcoin are currently serving as applications of sound money principles. Gold is the analog application and Bitcoin is the digital application. Gold’s market cap is $8+ trillion and Bitcoin’s is only $200+ billion. It is likely that Bitcoin’s market cap will eventually match, and then eclipse gold’s overtime (500,000 BTC price). When this happens, Bitcoin will have experienced a 40x increase in price. If the historical market cycles continue playing out, there will be a significant double-digit price increase over the next 15 months or so, followed by a nasty 50%+ decline in price and multi-year bear market, and finally, another significant price increase that would push us closer to gold’s market cap.

    My reason for writing to you today is not to convince you of the 10-year outlook for Bitcoin. That is complex and requires multiple inputs/assumptions to be correct. Instead, I am urging you to take another look at Bitcoin as a potential 1-10% allocation in your portfolio over the next 15 months. I personally have made a highly-concentrated investment (90%) and believe it is imperative that I share this view with you. I’d be happy to jump on a call with you or your team to discuss the asset and market further, while also answering any questions you may have.

    The market is the ultimate referee in the game of investing, and it is emphatically telling us that Bitcoin is worth holding. Talk soon.

    Hope each of you enjoyed this one. Stay safe out there. Talk tomorrow.

    Victoria B., DebraGM, GavinH and 2 others like this.
  4. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    At 34K

    is now worth more than Alibaba.
    Bitcoin: $634 billion
    Alibaba: $629 billion
  5. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    As the price of bitcoin has been surging, the hosts of Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert, discuss how the biggest asset manager in the world, BlackRock, is finally admitting that bitcoin will take the place of gold.
    According to Max, bitcoin is the black hole of money and it sucks everything in. “All fiat money will be sucked in by bitcoin, gold pricing will be sucked in by bitcoin, all stores of value will be eclipsed by bitcoin,” he says, adding that everything on the planet Earth will be priced in bitcoin “as we head to hyperbitcoinization.”

    Max points out that the Mona Lisa will be priced in bitcoin and Faberge eggs will be bond-sold in bitcoin. “It’ll be the most sought-after commodity in the multiverse,” he concludes.
    John Schumacher likes this.
  6. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  7. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    I woke up this AM and saw a magnificent sunrise and wondered how many people I have touched in 2020 have become bitcoin millionaires. It seems it has happened slowly, then all at once with nights like these......it took 17 days to go from 20K to 30K. Now at 34K this AM. We need to help our tribe get this idea solidified in their minds. It is time to decentralize our life to improve our health by giving us unlimited options to avoid medical algorithms that harm us.
    The dystopian present state of medical care in 2021 is on display:
    Recently two of my members did something shocking. They left conventional medicine before their careers even began to bank on themselves. I'm proud to call them colleagues and friends for having this courage. They decided to decentralize their medical careers against all odds. They refused to become a corporate property of some hospital system.
    Would you want to be corporate property? If so, you should choose to become an employed physician and get a blue check from Twitter.
    For the rest of you, do not let people with blank eyes and minds bulldoze you into getting treated by medical algorithms.
    The message for you the public is simple in 2021. Your doctors and scientists are as dumb as they look and sound because they have to listen to a boss who has no training in biology to keep their pay coming. Their bosses are "doctors of finance" and the only outcome they care about is the profit and loss statement. They are not in touch with reality at all that medicine should be dealing with.
    They don't know ‘jack’ about how to help or heal anyone. Your doctor has to align with their bosses = those doctors are soldiers in the army performing medical tyranny on the public.
    We have to riot and push back hard against this system of control.
    These profit demons will not back off until everyone has a perfectly controlled slave consciousness. That is the purpose of medical algorithms they ask coders to create for them to subject you to.
    The healthcare sector on Wall Street already destroyed medicine and doctors who signed up to be employed helped this suicide. Now the Wall Street profiteers want to destroy the essence of what you are. Trust your gut instincts.
    If we in medicine were to remain silent on these topics, we’d be guilty of complicity with medical tyranny.

  8. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    In 2014, Japanese physician Tetsuharu Shinjyo published a before-and-after study that is a harbinger of the direction in which the world needs to go. He evaluated the health of the residents of an apartment building in Okinawa, upon whose roof cell phone antennas had been operating for a number of years. 122 individuals representing 39 of the 47 apartments, were interviewed and examined. Prior to the removal of the antennas, 21 people suffered from chronic fatigue; 14 from dizziness, vertigo, or Meniere's disease; 14 from headaches; 17 from eye pain, dry eyes, or repeated eye infections; 14 from insomnia; 10 from chronic nosebleeds. Five months after the antennas were removed, no one in the building had chronic fatigue. No one had nosebleeds anymore. No one had eye problems. Only two people still had insomnia. One still had dizziness. One still had headaches. Cases of gastritis and glaucoma resolved. Like the residents of that building before the study, the majority of the people in the world today do not know that their acute and chronic illnesses are in large part caused by electromagnetic pollution. They do not talk to each other about their health problems and are unaware that they are shared by many of their neighbors.
    --From "The Invisible Rainbow", by Arthur Firstenberg, 2017

    No medical algorithm solves this^^^^^^^^

    Wise physicians who decline mind pollution by their training need to learn about what really is harming us now. Anything that allows physicians and patients to decentralize themself allows for possible solutions to be found quicker to eliminate mitochondrial pathology.
    SunnyDay and John Schumacher like this.
  9. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    What did BTC #8 really say? Bitcoin -> Ethereum -> large caps -> DeFi blue chips = the future

    Is there a detour from ETH 2.0 coming capping its value? I think so. Others do not.
    SunnyDay and John Schumacher like this.
  10. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    What do I see happening by 2025? See BTC #6:
    Ecommerce is eating retail. Cloud is eating on-premise servers. Cloud kitchens are eating restaurants. Zoom is eating in-person meetings. Bitcoin is eating gold. The world is being digitized right before our eyes.
    Victoria B., Pablo, SunnyDay and 2 others like this.
  11. Thank you -> @Jack Kruse, we've been awaiting your return to this forum.
  12. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    2009 - Inception 2010 - no bid
    2011 - $0.31 - $1.6m
    2012 - $5 - $39m
    2013 - $13 - $102m
    2014 - $784 - $10B
    2015 - $315 - $3B
    2016 - $433 - $6B
    2017 - $1k - $10B
    2018 - $14.6k - $250B
    2019 - $3.9k - $67B
    2020 - $6.9k - $135B
    2021 - $34k - $625B

    = y^2 = x^3 + 7

    ^^^^^^This equation is the next one to change the world.

    Here are the first 17 that changed the world:


    Many people value convenience over privacy and self-sovereignty.....refuse to be them in 2021.
  13. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Q: "Is now a good time to buy bitcoin?"
    A: As always, if you have to ask, you have not read my BTC series on patreon so for you, the answer is "no."
    For the rest of you who have read it, you already know the answer.
  14. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    I don't believe it is not possible for the US government to mount a technical attack on Bitcoin at this time (2021). They're barely able to mail paper stimulus checks. However, it is possible for them to mount a regulatory attack against it. And, it turns out, you are the regulatory defense. Time to get up and speak and do something constructive instead of worrying about things. Even with US regulations, BTC cannot be stopped. https://beta.regulations.gov/document/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001
    SunnyDay and John Schumacher like this.
  15. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    I wonder how many Black Swan mitochondriac bitcoiners saw in the cards that they’d one day be spending a few nights perusing proposed regulations in the federal register.........that will determine their future health?

    This thread is a thread of gratitude to those in my tribe who helped me along the way become crisper in my vision of this topic. There are many of you I am thinking about now and many conversations I won't soon forget. Those people have helped shaped my ideas by sharpening my critical mind. Bad leaders simply do what is expedient, heedless of principles. Those people tend to be ideologues. While the word has a bad connotation I have still learned a lot from these type of people, but you have to add your own critical thinking to that recipe before teaching. But the worst leaders are those who adhere to the principles regardless of what the fortunes of the moment demand. Those leaders usually listen to their network and pick their minds before crafting their own vision for what is critical for the world of here and now.

    A bitcoin ideologue – one who is drunk on BTC thinks ideologically – can't lose any argument you bring to them. They can't lose because their answer, their interpretation, and their attitude have been determined in advance of the particular experience or observation because of belief and bias. They are derived from their BTC ideology and are not subject to the varying facts of the present moment. There is no possible argument, observation, or experiment that could disprove a firm ideological belief for the very simple reason that an ideologue will not accept any argument, observation, or experiment as constituting disproof of their bias.

    One of the biggest hallmarks of critical thinking is the capacity for independent thought.
    It's easy to believe or agree without consideration. Nevertheless, when we choose to think independently, we exercise a right we have as humans, and a responsibility we have as global citizens.

    Independent thought requires effort and work, but the payoff is immeasurable. For one thing, it introduces different perspectives and viewpoints, which can be educational in nature. Another aspect of independent thought is that it leads us to carry our convictions with courage and to have faith in our ability to decide what is best for ourselves.

    The stories we tell ourselves, however, are not the facts.......these stories are how we see the world because of our biases and our ideology. The critical thinker knows this and fights it inside themself and inside the people they listen too.

    The important thing is to never stop thinking. We do this by feeding our curiosity which has a key reason for existing itself.

    Inherent curiosity is one of the defining traits of highly effective critical thinkers. With that curiosity comes the practice of questioning to explore, discover, and reveal. This is why through using essential and herding questions in our teaching, we drive learners' curiosity by engaging them in exploring a topic through questions that begin big and get increasingly specific as more discover its are made.

    Consider also that curiosity is like exercise for the brain, combatting boredom and stagnation by making the brain more active and energized. By being curious, we seek out possibilities and perceive things we normally wouldn't see. Or, we end up seeing them in a completely different light.

    Screaming at others who's opinion differs won't work in your circle of six, family, or friends. Improving your argument for your ideas will.

    Critical thinkers usually don't scream their opinions to get them across. Instead, they come prepared to open discussions with a solid bedrock of knowledge and experience to rest on the discussion topic. They'll listen openly to the views of others and consider anything that another's perspective may have to teach them, and share in any and all discussions constructively as possible.

    The point is, critical thinkers seek to improve their positions in an argument logically, and with respect for an opposer. This is how we transform conflict into conversation.

    "Read not to contradict and confute; nor to believe and take for granted; nor to find talk and discourse; but to weigh and consider."—Francis Bacon

    There is so much opinion and perspective in the world being shared freely through both online and offline channels that one must truly be able to read something without taking it immediately to heart. Analytical skills for reading are thus valuable skills to foster in our learners. One thing we can do for them in this vein is to encourage them to ask thoughtful questions as they read.

    The purpose for this is simple; not only does it cultivate independent critical thinking skills, but it helps students enjoy reading more. Rather than passively consuming the words they read, they are questioning and observing, looking for hidden meanings, recognizing patterns and relations to experiences they’ve had, and more.

    There is an inherent danger in taking what we read at face value, and there always has been. This is why I continue to teach the skills of information fluency to my members, and why the capacity to think critically about what we read factors greatly into its process.
    Pablo, Alex97232 and John Schumacher like this.
  16. Alex97232

    Alex97232 Gold

    Thank you, Jack.
  17. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    “Bitcoin is a bubble” appears to be the unanimous opinion of Australian property investors and investment bankers bag holding a negatively geared 100% cross-collateralized investment loan of one property secured against another property. Watch how the market beats this proposition.
    Alex97232 and John Schumacher like this.
  18. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    September 19, 2018
    How Risky is it to Buy Cryptocurrency?
    [​IMG] By Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz
    Key Points
    • Cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, can be extremely volatile; investments can result in remarkable gains, but equally staggering losses.

    • Trading cryptocurrency is very risky. The industry is not regulated and the currency is not backed up by any kind of government or central bank.

    • Even though cryptocurrencies are designed to be theft-proof, there’s still a considerable risk for fraud and cyber-crime.
    Dear Carrie,

    I was at a dinner party recently and several of my friends were talking about how much money they had made on Bitcoin. I’m thinking about investing in cryptocurrency too, but I’m concerned about the risks. What do you think?

    —A Reader

    Dear Reader,

    Many of my children’s friends have dabbled in investing in Bitcoin and other forms of cryptocurrency, so I’ve also heard about the unbelievable amounts of money that can be made (and then potentially lost). And I can certainly understand that it can be fun to try something different and cutting-edge. But when people tell you these stories, what they usually forget to mention are the risks involved.

    In fact, I often compare buying cryptocurrency to gambling in Las Vegas. It can be fun to gamble, and you might walk away with bundles. But you shouldn’t do it with money that you need to buy a house, pay for college, or your retirement.

    Therefore, I think you’re right to be concerned. I also think that the best way to make a decision is to arm yourself with the facts.

    What cryptocurrency is, and how it works
    The idea behind cryptocurrency is pretty straightforward. It’s a form of digital currency that lets you make online payments to other people or businesses without having to go through a third-party like a bank. Records of these transactions are logged onto a public ledger called a blockchain, which is stored and duplicated on thousands of computers around the world; this is how the system remains relatively accountable and transparent.

    There are currently about 1,500 types of cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Zcash. You can buy the "coins" in a variety of ways, including paying cash for them on an exchange like Coinbase; providing goods or services in exchange for the currency; or purchasing them from a Bitcoin ATM. After you’ve bought cryptocurrency, you store them in an “online wallet.”

    You may have also heard of Initial Coin Offerings (or ICOs), which involve an investor purchasing cryptocurrency coins that aren’t part of a registered offering, but that provide the promise of a future stake in a startup venture. In these cases, the startups create their own “coins” to sell to investors.

    I know that cryptocurrency sounds like it is super high-tech, but digital currency has actually been around, in one form or another, for years. Loyalty programs like airline frequent flier miles, hotel points, and credit card points are all forms of digital currency. The benefits you receive from these programs are not in dollars, but in the company’s self-created currency. So this is something a lot of us are familiar with already. It's just a slightly different form.

    Buyer beware, the risks are real
    Like you, I’ve heard about people making staggering sums off of cryptocurrency. Let’s take Bitcoin as an example. When Bitcoin launched in 2010, the price of one coin was $0.01. In December of 2017, that same coin was worth around $20,000. The value of Bitcoin rose more than 1,000% in 2017 alone. With those kinds of returns, you’d think we’d all want to get in on the game, right? But by August of 2018, a single Bitcoin was back down to $6,000. Which brings me to one of the things I want to stress most: Cryptocurrency has been extremely volatile.

    Warren Buffet, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and someone I really admire, has said that he won’t touch Bitcoin. He understands that its dramatic rise and fall has been driven mostly by supply and demand, not because the currency has any inherent value. In other words, he views cryptocurrency as speculation, not investment. I agree.

    The distinction is important to understand. Investing involves taking a calculated risk in order to achieve an expected return based on the price and quality of what something’s worth today. Speculating, on the other hand, means buying something regardless of its value—to attempt to make a profit by later selling it to someone else for a higher price.

    Another risk is that trading in cryptocurrency is largely unregulated. The coins are not backed by a government or a central bank, like the U.S. dollar is. And the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission doesn’t oversee the buying and selling of this kind of currency—yet. That means that Bitcoin is a lot less stable and secure than what’s being issued by Uncle Sam.

    In addition, even though cryptocurrencies have been designed to be theft-proof, there’s also a chance of fraud and cybercrime. In June of 2011, for example, the Japan-based Mt. Gox (which was then the largest Bitcoin exchange) experienced a security breach in which $450 million worth of Bitcoin was stolen. In December of 2017, the Slovenian cryptocurrency exchange, NiceHash, was hacked for a loss of $64 million. However keep in mind that cryptocurrency exchanges based in the U.S. must register as a national securities exchange with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has mandatory requirements regarding cybersecurity.

    In the case of ICOs, there’s substantially less investor protection than in traditional securities markets, with more opportunities for fraud and manipulation, and fewer protections for investors in the event of theft. However, that may soon change, as a judge recently ruled that ICOs are considered securities.

    On a more personal note, I don’t like that cryptocurrency has been associated with the more unsavory side of finances, like money laundering, the black market, and the dark web, which offers online marketplaces where criminals can buy and sell illicit goods and services.

    And you’re at risk in a much simpler way, too. You need a login ID and password to access cryptocurrency exchanges. If you forget those—or they’re lost or stolen in a hacker or phishing scam—you can lose your access, and your currency. Unfortunately, with no issuing or regulating country or authority for cryptocurrencies, there’s very little recourse in cases of fraud or theft. And law enforcement often has limited ability to seize it.

    Only if you don’t need the money…
    As I mentioned in my Las Vegas analogy above, I think that buying cryptocurrency is a serious gamble. It’s fine if you want to purchase some—and speculating could be a lot of fun—but you should only do it with money you can afford to lose. If your goal is to grow the money you’ll need for the future, you’re better off sticking to more traditional investments instead.

    Have a personal finance question? Email us at askcarrie@schwab.com. Carrie cannot respond to questions directly, but your topic may be considered for a future article. For Schwab account questions and general inquiries, contact Schwab.
    Theka likes this.
  19. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    December 31, 2020, by info@kruseatdestin.com
    I sent an email last night to a group of friends in October 2020.
    to drive us 10-20x higher in the 15-month window.
    October 2021 +3 months=January 2022
    1 million can go up to 10-20 million (from Oct 2020 level)
    2 million can go up to 20-40 million (from Oct 2020 level)
    The demand outlook is strong, and it shows signs of actually accelerating into the first half of 2021.
    Just those two factors alone should be compelling enough to ensure that you have some exposure (1-10% of your portfolio) to Bitcoin.
    I am urging you to take another look at Bitcoin as a potential 1-10% allocation in your portfolio over the next 15 months.
    I personally have made a highly-concentrated investment (90%) and believe it is imperative that I share this view with you.




    Last edited: Jan 3, 2021
    John Schumacher likes this.
  20. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

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