1. Registering for the Forum

    We require a human profile pic upon registration on this forum.

    After registration is submitted, you will receive a confirmation email, which should contain a link to confirm your intent to register for the forum. At this point, you will not yet be registered on the forum.

    Our Support staff will manually approve your account within 24 hours, and you will get a notification. This is to prevent the many spam account signups which we receive on a daily basis.

    If you have any problems completing this registration, please email support@jackkruse.com and we will assist you.

MY CLUBHOUSE THESIS: HYPERINFLATION IS CLOSE

Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Mar 11, 2021.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Blackrock (WEF) Responds To Soros' Scathing Op-Ed in the WSJ, Ray Dalio Also Chimes In

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackr...ant-didi-global-national-security-11630938728

    By publishing the article, the prominent liberal and Democrat donor exposed Wall Street's ESG hypocrisy (WEF) - where it is perfectly acceptable to slam the US but where most keep their mouths shut when it comes to Beijing, well aware any criticism could lead to an immediate loss of access to China's 1.4 billion consumers. Soros is one of the creators of the ESG narrative for the WEF. He does not want any oil/coal used in the world period.

    Since Soros created the WEF narrtive of ESG and he rails against it in the USA market, Soros is, of course, being congruent in his disdain and criticism of China although due to his ideological presence in the US, we expect that his laments will be soundly ignored and mocked, even if his criticism opens a rare schism within the otherwise unbreakable facade among Wall Street's most prominent firms such as BlackRock, Blackstone, Bridgewater and Goldman, where criticism of America is perfectly acceptable and encouraged but any badmouthing of Xi's regime is grounds for an immediate career short-circuit.

    The world's largest asset manager (BlackRock) was scrambling to defend it ESG-reputation and "virtue" after the scathing Soros op-ed: the world's largest hedge fund also took notice. Both BlackRock and Ray Dalio are telling people to avoid USA bonds and buy China now.

    Speaking at a Bloomberg Radar event, Ray Dalio - whose Bridgewater Associates is the world’s biggest hedge fund with the exception of central banks of course - talked about his long history of visiting and working in Asia, as well as his first visit to China in 1984. Dalio’s personal family office expanded to Singapore in 2020.

    “It’s a part of the world that one can’t neglect and not only because of the opportunities it provides but you lose the excitement if you’re not there,” Dalio said when asked about his family office’s plans. “And so our objective is to be there both economically and investment-wise.”

    Black Rock, Dalio, and Soros are all enemies of the US taxpayer. None of them are as bullish on BTC.

    Soros seems to be the only one who realizes China is a paper tiger. Their whole economy is sinking right now at some 300% debt to GDP. This over exposure to Construction has led to people over leveraging and now banks will start going under very soon. That is a huge credit risk they have to nationalize/socialized.

    They make the public treasury pay this debt.

    The CCP financial system on the edge of the cliff now, set to plunge anytime soon. Party's personal monies already had been transferred overseas through various Ponzi schemes, right now enjoying the legal safeguard in the West. In a communist system it's always the people who suffer.

    [​IMG]

    On Sept 7th, Evergrande defaulted. This is why you cannot trust CCP media. It smacks of 2008 Lehman collapse
     
    Sean Waters, Alex97232 and JanSz like this.
  2. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    China owns swaths of the US…using this debt = big domino that will hit here in the next few months

    The biggest issuer of commercial paper in China has just defaulted.

    The United States is on track for a strategic default in October according to Janet Yellen. NOTHING SURPRISES ME ANYMORE.
     
  3. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    It’s all but certain that Congress is unlikely to raise the US debt ceiling before the Senate leaves for summer recess. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the US government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. When the ceiling is reached, the Treasury cannot issue any more bills, bonds, or notes. It can only pay bills through tax revenues, or by dipping into its savings (i.e., the cash balance) at the Treasury.

    What happens if China credit market goes boom in October at the same time?

    DYX might hit the moon.
     
    Sean Waters, GavinH and JanSz like this.
  4. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Ukraine has legalized Bitcoin. You can now buy, sell and hold Bitcoin.
    [​IMG]
     
    Sean Waters, caroline, GavinH and 6 others like this.
  5. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    What else may hinder the economic flu coming from China's credit markets? China has serious comorbid food security issues. Hurricane IDA knocked out their backup plan from buying foodstuff from the US. I expect food prices to worsen this winter. Start buying more and storing more. This might facilitate the economic reset in speed if the credit crash in China reaches our shores in the 4th Q. https://fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/protein-and-transpacific-power
     
  6. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    DISTRACTED by vaccines, covid 19, Delta, Mu & Mask, and The greatest wealth transfer in the history of the world takes place. - Gas prices are up 50% - Coffee prices are up 54% - Global debt is $281+ TRILLION Propaganda machines have you looking one way, look the other. Governments are stealing from you right now everywhere but in El Salvador
     
  7. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  8. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    The dilemma China faces on property prices, will likely cause the government to dial back property curbs when they start to become worse, in the usual on-again, off-again fashion due to monetary policy.

    The Chinese economy relies largely on property development. Because real estate is so important culturally in China for Beijing to want it to decline. If property collapses because of the credit crisis around Evergarde and the other ADR's the cost to household wealth and the banking system due to a drop in housing prices would be steep.

    Because buying real estate is implicitly speculative in China so once prices begin to slide there is a real risk that they will fall sharply for a long time. With Chinese households holding 75-80% of their wealth in the form of property – the comparable number for Japan at the end of the 1980s during stagflation was 65% – the wealth effect of property prices moving in either direction is considerable considering the global inflation trend driving up asset prices. Should policymakers press hard by tightening monetary policy to prevent property prices from rising further, the unintended economic and social consequence could be dramatic and very unwelcome within China and for the USA. A credit default is a big risk.

    The problem is that property prices cannot keep rising without also causing more damage to the economy long term. The problems in the Chinese real estate and debt market is far worse than it is anywhere else in the world and it has been hidden by the financial engineering of the CCP and their MSM control.

    The authorities in the CCP have known this was coming for many years, but in the past every time they tried to step on the brakes, they panicked quickly by easing monetary policy. Now it seems that Beijing is trying to be more proactive, by limiting speculation with BTC banning and trimming the power of industrial powerhouses like Jack Ma. China like the USA are at the end of a debt cycle. The Chinese options have gotten worse over time. Even the CBDC roll out has not gone as well as they have wished.

    Now with Evergrande default it appears Chinese real estate bubble is going to pop because the CCP has few options left.
     
  9. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    When you have a property sector with trillions of inventory…”price controls” could lead to an inability to move that inventory. For a highly levered player like Evergrande, not being able to move inventory means death. With death comes a credit bubble.
     
  10. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Chinese don’t own the houses but only a lease of 70 years. A bit like the grand lease.

    In China property developers don't control policy. Xi does. What Xi could do is what all communists usually do. Tap the people's wealth.

    He could introduce Georgist levels of property taxation instantly giving China the ability to out compete every other capitalist nation on earth to avoid a credit default.

    It’s been either partially implemented to pretty effective ends in places like Vancouver (though eroded through tax revolts), or used in public-ownership variants like Singapore.
     
  11. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  12. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Here is where tyranny begins to get worse. Biden to sign an EO today requiring all fed employees to be vaxxed, with no opt-out via testing If you voted for him, you get what you deserve. Biden has become the 21st-century version of Caligula. Insane & dangerous to the taxpayer

    With democrats, good stuff happens for their supporters when the press goes home and the lobbyists return to DC.
    Will unions get themselves exempted as they did with Obamacare/ACA? A perk for dues-paying members?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political...uiring-all-public-workers-and-contractors-get
     
    Sean Waters, Alex97232 and JanSz like this.
  13. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Moderna just submitted data on boosters. The FDA is evaluating data on Pfizer boosters. Israel is sending their data on boosters to the FDA. Yet the administration announced that boosters will be available Sept 20th. Is that policy informing science or science informing policy?

    It is political science trumping biological science.

    We're being ruled by fools. COVID is a compliance test for an economic war on the taxpayer.
     
  14. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Powell will rue the day he uttered the word “transitory”

    The national average rent rose 10.3% from a year earlier to $1,539, first double-digit rise in the dataset’s history, after a $25 increase in August. Over past 10 years, the average pace of growth has been 2%

    [​IMG]
     
    Sean Waters likes this.
  15. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Holy Shit. 85% of US junk bonds have negative real yields - after 08' it peaked at 10% Pair this with the fact that 25% of global government debt yields negative NOMINALLY. Never in history has the world seen more negative yielding debt - markets are backed into a corner.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    For the 1st time in nine months, the CPI rose less than expected. But the .3% Aug. gain still annualizes to almost 4%. The "actual" YOY rise is 5.3%, and the annualized YTD jump is 6.3%. A ridiculously low owner's equivalent rent continues to mask a far larger inflation problem.

    Creeping indicators of slowing US import demand coming in from the shipping side. One signal - ocean carriers are beginning to quietly offer fixed-rate agreements to major importers to lock in quarterly/annual rates, with spot rates in some lanes now freezing or retreating.
     
  17. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    The supply chain disruptions started in Q3/20 and will endure until Q4/22 at least, compounded by what is likely to be a nasty West Coast longshoremen strike in Q3/22. M&A activity will escalate in Q3/Q4 this year due to companies being unable to source products and pay freight = inflation.
     
    GavinH, caroline, Sean Waters and 2 others like this.
  18. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    The Institute of International Finance says $4.8 TRILLION was added to the global mountain of debt in the second quarter, bringing the total to a record high $296 TRILLION
     
  19. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Evergrande Suspends Trading In All Bonds

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Clubhouse Update for those who listened to the diarrhea from the stage this AM from a single voice. Here is his blind spot as I see it.

    Evergrande damage control PBOC injected ¥90B ($13.9B) of funds on a net basis via 7-day & 14-day reverse repurchase agreements last Friday, this is the most since February & first time this month that authorities added >¥10B of short-term liquidity into the banking system in a day.

    Now the PBOC is saying they are not going to nationalize their debt.

    Could Evergrande debt be an added wave to global debt markets without any issues?

    The wise among us now realize 85% of US junk bonds have negative real yields - after 08' it peaked at 10% Pair this with the fact that 25% of global government debt yields negative NOMINALLY. Never in history has the world seen more negative yielding debt - markets are backed into a corner. Evergrande wave of debt would easily be able to knock over the CDS spreads and bond markets in the USA.

    In the last 24 months the US Federal Reserve has added nearly $4.7 trillion to its balance sheet compared to $3.8 trillion it added in the 6 years following the financial crisis. "We print it digitally" - Jay Powell

    They'll never unwind this. Ever.

    [​IMG]

    What would 4-10 Trillion dollars of bad Chinese debt do to the global debt markets short term right now with the debt the USA added recently?

    [​IMG]

    What has happened recently to the USA system with respect to debt.

    In light of McConnell's recent comments on the USA debt ceiling, do a quick check on the Treasury's General Account: $296.9B as of 9/1/21.

    The Daily Treasury Statement from the first Tuesday shows MTD net change in cash of -$144.8B. Puts current cash balance around $152B. Looks like $144B in UST maturing by 9/30.

    The US Treasury net change likely reflects unexpected emergency cash outlay for the withdrawal from Afghanistan as well. And of course, the child tax credit is roughly $118 B/month

    This means the TGA will be broke in EARLY OCTOBER.

    So what happens if Evergrande debt issues hit USA credit markets at roughly the same time in Early October?

    McConnell's comments become magnified in this light. THE DEBT CEILING MAKES US MARKETS VULNERABLE TO ATTACK. THIS WILL ALTER THE GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS OF THE US AND MIGHT DO WHAT XI has always wanted. Make the US bend at the knee by causing a dramatic reversal from this picture of inflation to a massive deflationary abyss on a short term basis. Could Xi be Sun Zu here?

    McConnell said, “The country must never default…debt ceiling will need to be raised. But who does that depends on who American people elected. The only issue is, whose responsibility is it to do it? A Democratic president, a Democratic House, a Democratic Senate. It's their obligation

    Those are Xi people. Biden administration and Xi both buy into the WEF ideas of a one world government.

    Doesn’t anyone understand that raising the debt limit means the USA DID default in the past????

    Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we've defaulted already - two times in fact. First, in 1933-1934 when FDR confiscated all gold at $20.67 per oz and then devalued the dollar to $35 per oz for 40 years. Second default, in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window.

    McConnell effectively can run the country but not increasing the debt ceiling. To me it appears China might be using Evergrande as their version of the 2 airplanes that flew into the World trade Center in 2001. If you can can engineer a debt wave to hit just at the right time in the USA you might make DYX go to the moon and facilitate a rapid US credit crisis when the economy is most vulnerable and you can complete your 100 year plan. Because you already have a CBDC you can out print money to keep the financial strangle hold on US markets to force them to act in a way that suits your 100 year plan.

    Do you want to fly blind or do you want to operate using the precaution principle? Should you pay attention to the events developing in Asia right and try to understand them from a 30,000 foot view?

    As long as China keeps settling in US dollars then we will be ok with continuing to creat currency and monetizing past debt. MIGHT EVERGRANDE BE THEIR LINE IN THE SAND?

    Inflation will make out debt seem cheap, but a deflationary spiral would destroy the USA in very quick fashion. Might the Fed and Treasury be blind to the CCPs plan because they are too comfortable? The US financial system believes we owe the Fed and they don’t need to be paid back anytime soon. So this fuels their blind spots.

    Might Rome be burning and the fire so far away that you don't feel the heat yet? Some of us can see the fire burning and we do not need to feel the heat to understand what is going on in the global stage.
     
    Sara S, GavinH, caroline and 2 others like this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page