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Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Mar 11, 2021.

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  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    I told many in El Salvador that BTC buys you time and freedom.

    Here is how it works.
    Fiat Money Steals Your Life: In 1971, at the avg hourly rate of $4, it took 625 hrs of your life to buy the standard Ford F-150 truck.

    Today, the avg hourly rate is $26 but now takes 1,154 hours to get a standard F-150. That is 529 hours freed up for you use.
  2. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

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  3. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  4. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

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  5. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Just a friendly reminder... ALL Fiats are melting ice cubes. Their rate of decay is relative, and you will see research on going long this cross rate etc....but in the end they all DECAY. BTC is insurance on crumbling Fiat credit quality... DO NOT OVERTHINK it.
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  6. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    "PAY in Fiat, SAVE in Bitcoin" -- bumper stickers should be issued globally.
  7. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  8. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Told ya this was coming. [​IMG]
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  9. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Why you still have a chance to sell your real estate and buy your Citadel elsewhere.

    One of the most important podcasts you'll hear to explain what I see coming.
  10. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    BOOM! Global stocks have gained another $1.6tn in mkt cap this week. Equities now worth $120.3tn, highest in history because the Fed aren't going to taper anytime soon after the weaker econ numbers. Global stock mkt cap now equals to 142% of world GDP an ATH as well.

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  11. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    As I predicted ten pages ago GDP is being revised down in a big way.

    STAGFLATION is now where we are. Inflation with no growth.
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  12. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Last week, in his Jackson Hole speech Jay Powell grudgingly admitted that prices might rise a bit more than the FOMC previously thought. But it was too early to conclude that policies should be adjusted immediately. With prices rising at over double the 2% target, there’s nothing to worry about. But be reassured, the Fed is on the case, according to Powell. In other words Powell says, because inflation is always 2 per cent and Humpty-Dumpty insists it is so, markets will return to the 2 per cent target.

    Incidentally, when someone invokes belief, it is either the product of faith or lack of knowledge. This is why politicians cite faith a lot, and we should be wary when it is a justification for monetary policy.

    There is, of course, one glaring problem with all this as Powell admits before dismissing it: “businesses and consumers widely report upward pressure on prices and wages”. There is an associated problem, an enormous elephant in the room that no official seems to be aware of, which independent analysts such as John Williams at Shadowstats.com points out, and that is if you strip out all the changes in statistical method that have deliberately reduced headline price rises since 1980, you find that according to an unadjusted CPI(U), prices are now rising at over 13% annualized.

    Perhaps we should give Powell one out of ten for courage for participating at Jackson Hole, while zero points must be awarded to Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey, both having refused to take part in the symposium when at other times they would surely have welcomed the chance to be in the limelight on the global monetary stage. We are left wondering why they preferred not to justify their monetary policies in such a forum.

    But if Powell gets one point for at least appearing, he gets at least nine out of ten for evasion. A word-search of his speech reveals why. It is headlined about monetary policy. But money was only mentioned once, and that was in the title of one of the references at the end. Not even when discussing longer-term inflation expectations was money mentioned. And word searches for M1 and M2 show nothing. The Fed’s monetary policy does not appear to involve money.

    It links to a political event = COVID LOCKDOWNS to facilitate the economic reset at the end of a debt cycle.


    Figure 1 shows narrow money supply before it was amended to include former categories of broader M2 money last February, rendering it useless for comparative analysis. Narrow money supply is going off the scales. Yet at Jackson Hole it was never mentioned, except in a footnote. Equally incredible is the gullibility of the investment establishment knowing that money does matter yet was drawn into the Fed’s non-monetary narrative.

    The Fly in the annointment is political. The DEBT CEILING HAS TO BE RAISED AND RIGHT NOW THE GOP WON'T DO IT. They will use it as the dirty bomb to the midterms elections.

    Like the child in the fable who observed the emperor had been conned into wearing no clothes, a child today with an elementary grasp of arithmetic will understand that if you increase the quantity of something, each unit will be worth less. Today’s masters of the monetary universe seem unaware of the fact. They have written many erudite books and articles, made speeches as we saw last week, in ignorance of or wishing away monetary facts.

    The consequences of debasement are therefore ducked. Interventionists dismiss the Cantillon effect, whereby prices increase in the wake of the new money being spent into circulation. Have they even heard of it? As an unarguable fact, it should be indisputable. And clearly, rising prices are a consequence of the massive increase in circulating currency evidenced in Figure 1 above, and not due solely to an imbalance between production and consumer demand which will correct in time, as Powell claimed at Jackson Hole.

    Economic dislocation is part of and at the same time an additional factor to monetary expansion behind price increases. It arises from monetary inflation distorting markets, which continue to be disrupted by the covid pandemic. Covid-related disruption will continue into the foreseeable future, most noticeably due to logistical foul-ups, trading nations going in and out of lockdowns and other related restrictions on commerce. But at base, increases in the general level of prices occur as newly issued currency enters circulation.

    The Fed overseas two separate mechanisms for currency expansion. Quantitative easing is targeted at providing investing institutions with cash in return for low-risk assets, specifically US Treasury and agency bonds to the tune of $120bn every month. This QE has the effect of keeping bond yields suppressed and equity markets inflated because of the targeted institutions’ reinvestments. In addition — and it is separate from QE — there is the government’s budget deficit, theoretically financed out of private sector savings, but in the absence of an increase in the savings ratio, financed through the expansion of currency and credit.

    Fund raising for the government is about to become chaotic
    We can see that the Fed’s non-monetary approach to monetary policy begs important questions, but there are usually reasons behind it which we must consider. They give us a steer to the Fed’s real mission; its twin objectives of 2% price inflation and full employment having become secondary. It is to keep the Federal government financed by suppressing the interest cost and encouraging the expansion of bank credit to subscribe for government debt. The latter task was made easier during covid lockdowns, since unspent income temporarily accumulated in the financial system, which together with currency and credit expansion led to the government being awash with funds. But that has now changed, as the balance on the government’s general account at the Fed in Figure 2 shows.

    Since March 2020, when the balance was $380bn, the government accumulated a further $1.437 trillion to a balance of $1.817 trillion in a little over four months, funded by a mixture of currency and credit inflation to fund extra government debt. Since August last year, all that accumulation and a little more has been spent into general circulation, leading to liquidity flooding the economy. This liquidity has been absorbed by the Fed’s reverse repo (RRP) balances expanding to over a trillion dollars. The increase in RRPs had been necessary to prevent bank deposit and money market rates from going negative due to excessive liquidity.

    The flower pot analogy is this......The Fed is puring in 150 billion a month into the housing market while losing close to 1Trillion per night in the reverse repo. Eventually this will catch up to Yellen. It will drain the General Account of the Treasury and then Congress will be asked to raise the debt ceiling. Tommey already put a poison pill in the infrastructure bill meaning the Fed or Treasury cannot get any more money without Congress increasing the debt ceiling. McConnell is playing hard ball now. The chance of a subjective default of the USA is now very real in October. This is why I have been calling for a 4th Q collapse.

    The RRP makes the dollar stronger which moves us from hyper inflation failure to deflationary spiral failure. The increasing RRP is a form of tightening and the market does not realize this yet. They will soon because it exlains why the dollars is strong yet the economy is falling apart. Yellen's Treasury has emptied its coffers and they cannot be refilled without the 47 GOP senators.

    The effect on the dollar of the RRP level increasing has been to stabilize it on the foreign exchanges and to pause the headlong increase in commodity and raw material prices for the last few months. But this will almost certainly turn out to be a temporary effect. Hence why I have called an inflationary collapse. Assuming the debt ceiling will be raised in the coming weeks (it is inconceivable that either it will not or it will be suspended) the US Government will resume selling US Treasuries and T-bills into the market to top up its general account and fund its ongoing deficit.

    I don't believe the debt ceiling will be extended because of what Toomey has put in the infrastructure bill. This ramped up my belief that having an exit plan out of the USA might be wise if needed. Why did I choose El Salvador? The Q & A will cover that next Saturday.

    No doubt Yellen thinks the GOP will cave, the plan initially is for the Fed to accommodate this demand by reducing its outstanding RRP balances, thereby keeping its funds rate at the zero bound, and therefore yields on US Treasury stock suppressed. If this happens Money market fund adjustments will have to be made.

    The likely case is the infrastructure bill passes but the 3.5 Trillion stimulus Biden wants tied to this bill will never see the light of day = the domino that leads to the collapse.

    The best laid plans need numbers to add up, and immediately we can see a problem. The Fed may have a trillion up its sleeve in the form of RRPs which can be wound down. But the Biden administration is planning $6 trillion spending in fiscal 2022, rising to $8.2 trillion by 2031. Combined with a structural deficit, the government deficit next year will almost certainly be substantially higher than the Congressional Budget Office’s current forecasts. Furthermore, the CBO assumes the annual average growth of “real” GDP will average 2.8% during fiscal 2021—2025, an assumption that is looking optimistic, given the unexpected increase in the price deflator.

    In recent years the CBO’s forecasts have turned out to be overly optimistic. Furthermore, disruption of global logistics is an ongoing problem, so the supply of products to satisfy the increase in consumer spending assumed in the forecasts will continue to be restricted well into 2022. Covid disruptions have not ended and increases in infections are likely in the coming months. It all adds up to a recovery in tax revenues being postponed again, and government spending being increased more than budgeted, even before taking Biden’s proposed extra spending into account.

    The afghanistan fiasco further cost the government money no one is accounting for now in the coming debt crisis.

    The CBO’s optimistic assessment of the government deficit for next year is $1.153 trillion, reducing from over $3 trillion in the current year. Allowing for all the factors listed above, more realistically, another $3 trillion deficit is likely to be the minimum for fiscal 2022, which commences at the end of September 2021. Hence my call for the collapse in October and why I see Bitcoin going higher because of a poltiical error by Yellen and Powell. I beleive the GOP will force Biden hand and it will ultimately be his ticket out of office via impeachment for mismanagement or the 25th Amendement.

    Therefore, the simple problem is one of the Fed only being able to release one trillion of RRP liquidity into a market that will face demands for three trillion or more, being the likely fiscal deficit for 2022. We are back to where we were in March 2020, when the CBO forecast the deficit at $1.073 trillion, but the outturn was $3.13 trillion.

    In October - Dec 2021 I expect the RRP to be north if 2 Trillion per night. Monitor this closely to see if I am correct.

    The problem for the US Treasury is it cannot close the fiscal gap, even if it wanted to — which it doesn’t. Putting record budget deficits to one side, the neo-Keynesian script demands yet more stimulus. But consumer prices are rising and are continuing to do so as the economy falters. Raising the general level of taxation, as Biden says he will do, would obviously be counterproductive and cutting government spending is politically impossible — not least because spending $6 trillion is Biden’s committed plan. This will lead to his ouster one way or another. No wonder he is looking for ways to tax the rich to fund his planned spending, but even his economic advisers must realize the numbers simply don’t stack up based upon things he did not account for in 2021.

    With the Biden administration unable to reduce its budget deficit, a rising interest rate environment, reflecting price inflation, is bound to result in a funding crisis. I beleive this will lead to a credit crash or a housing bomb that takes it all down. These are the debt trap circumstances which not only deters foreign ownership of the currency but persuades foreigners to dump existing currency holdings in increasing amounts. It is the downside of the Triffin dilemma, when decades of irresponsible fiscal policy are encouraged to supply foreigners with a reserve currency. This is why El Salvadors president move to make Bitcoin a full currency by Sept 7th is incredibly brilliant. Inevitably, it ends with a currency crisis in the USA and El Salvador has protection because BTC is also now legal currency Tuesday.

    It is what led to the gold pool failure in the late 1960s and ended the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971. And according to the Treasury’s own TIC figures, foreign investment in dollar-denominated financial assets and cash now exceeds $32 trillion, roughly 150% of US GDP. The dollar has never been so over-owned by flaky foreign interests.

    Stap in folks. You'll soon see if I am right or wrong.
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  13. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    If the Federal Reserve wrote newspaper headlines.
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  14. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    My worries on China have come to fruition. EVERGRANDE BONDS were just HALTED! Amid credit liquidation panic as contagion spreads to other chinese junk ADR's and bonds. This could be the domino that begins the deflationary spiral.
    This story was told here in this thread ten pages ago and has been largely ignored story in Bitcoin circles - remain the ongoing collapse of "China's Lehman", the $300+ billion China Evergrande ADR.

    The endgame for Evergrande started on Friday, when China Securities Depository and Clearing Co. (CSDC) reduced the "conversion ratio" of the July 2022 bond to zero, effective Sept. 7. Other Evergrande bonds were not included in CSDC's table of conversion ratios on Friday as they no longer qualified for inclusion. The conversion ratio determines leverage limits for repo financing given a specific bond pledged as collateral. CSDC is owned by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. In other words, Evergrande suddenly finds itself with zero access to the repo market which funded it to the tune of billions heading into Friday.

    Tuesday trading in NY will be interesting.

    Today, it is not a holiday in China and it is nasty over there now.
    this will be a debt crisis that will morph into a credit crisis that could send shockwaves through China's banking system. Indeed, on Friday, an index of high-yield Chinese dollar issuers fell to its lowest level since spring 2020.

    Overnight contagion spread to other Chinese dollar junk bonds, which were hammered amid concern that the liquidity crisis at China Evergrande Group will worsen, raising the cost of borrowing for real estate companies. Yields on the notes, which are dominated by property firms, rose to 12.9% on Friday, Bloomberg reported.
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  15. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Clubhouse thesis was right: https://youtu.be/VNI9MD9t8fE

    The looming issue no one is talking about:
    The debt limit—commonly called the debt ceiling—is the maximum amount of debt that the Department of the Treasury can issue to the public or to other federal agencies. The amount is set by law and has been increased over the years to finance the government’s operations. Currently, there is no statutory limit on the issuance of new federal debt because the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 (Public Law 116-37), enacted in August 2019, suspended the limit through July 31, 2021. On August 1, 2021, the debt limit will be reset to the previous ceiling of $22.0 trillion, plus the cumulative borrowing that occurred during the period of suspension. Unless additional legislation either extends the suspension or increases the limit, existing statutes will allow the Treasury to declare a “debt issuance suspension period” and to take “extraordinary measures” to borrow additional funds for a period of time without breaching the debt ceiling.

    The Treasury’s cash balance and those extraordinary measures would enable it to continue financing the government’s activities for a while. However, if the debt limit remained unchanged, the ability to borrow using those measures would ultimately be exhausted, and the Treasury would probably run out of cash sometime in the first quarter of the next fiscal year (which begins on October 1, 2021), most likely in October or November, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. If that occurred, the government would be unable to pay its obligations fully, and it would delay making payments for its activities, default on its debt obligations, or both.

    The timing and size of revenue collections and outlays over the coming months could differ noticeably from CBO’s projections. Therefore, the extraordinary measures could be exhausted, and the Treasury could run out of cash, either earlier or later than CBO projects.
  16. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    For those who heard my recent talks on the next shoe to drop: The timing of the debt ceiling increase in October might be a real problem for any new expenditure. Think Afghanistan, a FEMA issue, or a Chinese crecit crunch that hits in the 4th Q to affect the bond or housing markets here.

    Federal Cash Flows will create a risk to the coming China credit crisis (Evergrande)
    From July through September 3oth, CBO estimates, federal revenues and outlays will total $786 billion and $1,551 billion, respectively. (Some of that difference will be covered by drawing down cash balances.) The Treasury General account is being drained at a record rate right now meaning they are running dry of cash. This means any new crisis reduces the margin of safety.

    Certain large flows of cash into and out of the Treasury follow a regular schedule that directly affects the amount of federal borrowing from the public, the largest component of debt subject to the limit. The following are typical payment dates and amounts for large government expenditures (although the actual date of disbursement may shift by a day or two in either direction if a normal payment date falls on a weekend or federal holiday):

    • Payments to Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans are made on the first day of the month (about $35 billion)
    • Social Security benefits are disbursed on the third day of the month (about $22 billion), with subsequent payments on three Wednesdays each month (about $20 billion each).
    • A large share of the pay for active-duty members of the military and the vast majority of benefit payments for civil service and military retirees, veterans, and recipients of Supplemental Security Income are disbursed on the first day of the month (about $25 billion).
    • Interest payments are made around the 15th and the last day of the month (amounts vary).
    Deposits into the Treasury (mostly in the form of tax revenues) are relatively steady throughout each month except for a few dates on which tax receipts are particularly large. Corporate income taxes are paid quarterly, with the next payments due in mid-September.

    The debt ceiling has to be raised by Sept 30th.

    What happens if it isn't?

    Unless legislation is enacted to raise or suspend the debt limit, the Treasury must take extraordinary measures to continue funding government activities after August 1, 2021. Even then, such measures will be available only for a limited time. This was covered by Beb Bernanke in the 2008 crisis and is called strategic national default.

    After the debt limit is reinstated, the Treasury (Yellen) could take the following measures:

    • Suspend the investments of the Thrift Savings Plan’s G Fund. Otherwise rolled over or reinvested daily, as of June 30, 2021, those investments totaled nearly $300 billion in Treasury securities.
    • Suspend investments of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Otherwise rolled over daily, as of June 30, 2021, such investments totaled $23 billion.
    • Suspend the issuance of new securities for the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund (PSRHBF), which usually total about $3 billion each month.
    • Redeem, in advance, securities held by the CSRDF and the PSRHBF in amounts equal in value to benefit payments that are due in the near future. Such payments are usually valued at about $8 billion per month, with an annual payment of about $45 billion scheduled for October 1, 2021, via CBO estimates.
    • Exchange Federal Financing Bank securities, which do not count against the debt limit, for Treasury securities held by the CSRDF.3 Approximately $8 billion in securities was available to be exchanged as of June 30, 2021.
    Those measures would provide the Treasury with additional room to borrow by limiting the amount of Treasury debt that would otherwise be outstanding.4 By law, the CSRDF, the PSRHBF, and the G Fund would eventually be made whole (including accrued interest) after the debt limit was raised.

    A large cash balance could also extend the time the Treasury has to continue financing government operations without issuing debt. On June 30, 2021, the Treasury had more than $850 billion in cash—less than half of the $1.8 trillion it had at the beginning of the fiscal year but still very high by historical standards. The situation is worse now. The Treasury projects that the balance will decrease to $450 billion at the end of July, which, combined with the measures listed above, should allow the Treasury to finance the government’s normal operations until sometime in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 without an increase in the debt ceiling.

    We’re headed toward a stalemate on the debt ceiling, and the risks of default are higher than at any time since 2011.

    McConnell is going to use the debt ceiling as the key strategy to win the 2022 midterms. Unless the China credit crisis comes here and causes everything to fast forward in the 4th Q this year. The chance for this went up big time since Evergarde went belly up.

    Could the debt gets socialized i.e. answer is Yes but some of this debt is likely US based in real estate! So, risk of closures, constructive destruction of dysfunctional companies - NIL. That is why China WILL NEVER work = blue straggler star burns out fast after fast growth. The US is following their path instead of following the free-market ideals via MMT, and that's why the US is in equal shit today.
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  17. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    What Is the Current Situation?
    P.L. 116-37 specifies that the amount of borrowing that occurs during the suspension of the debt limit will be added to the previous ceiling of $22.0 trillion. As of June 30, 2021, an additional $6.5 trillion had been borrowed by Biden for stimulus, bringing the amount of outstanding debt subject to the statutory limit to $28.5 trillion today. The new debt limit, which was established on August 1, 2021, will reflect additional borrowing through July 31.

    If the current suspension is not extended or if a higher debt limit is not legislated before August 1, from that date forward, under normal procedures, the Treasury will have no room to borrow other than to replace maturing debt. To avoid breaching the limit, the Treasury would then begin to take the extraordinary measures that, along with cash inflows, should allow it to finance the government’s activities for a limited time (90 days) without an increase in the debt ceiling.

    What about the bond market in this scenario? What are the pitfalls? Is it possible the bond market crumbles because of this China crisis and the treasury issues above?

    As of June 30, 2021, $22.3 trillion of the $28.5 trillion in outstanding debt subject to limit was held by the public (including the Federal Reserve); $6.2 trillion was held by government accounts.

    Debt Issuance: Treasury Auctions
    The Treasury issues numerous securities to obtain funds to pay off maturing securities and finance government activities. Those securities, which have various maturities, are normally issued in regularly scheduled auctions (although the actual date of issuance may shift by a day or two in either direction if the normal issuance date falls on a weekend or federal holiday). Under current law, the federal government will borrow $2.2 trillion in fiscal year 2021, CBO estimates.

    • Treasury bills (with maturities of up to 52 weeks) are typically issued every Tuesday and Thursday. Recent weekly sales have averaged about $250 billion.
    • Treasury notes (which currently have maturities of 2 years to 10 years and which include inflation-protected securities) are issued on the 15th and on the last day of the month. Sales in recent auctions on the 15th have averaged about $115 billion, and those on the last day of the month have averaged more than $260 billion.
    • Treasury bonds with 20-year maturities are issued at the end of each month, whereas those with 30-year maturities are issued in the middle of each month. Sales in recent auctions for each type have been about $30 billion. Inflation-protected securities with 30-year maturities are issued at the end of February and August. Sales in recent auctions have ranged from $8 billion to $9 billion.
    Debt Issuance: Government Account Series
    Debt held by government accounts—in the form of Government Account Series (GAS) securities—is mostly determined by the transactions of a few large trust funds. When a trust fund receives cash that is not immediately needed to pay benefits or to cover the program’s expenses, the Treasury credits the trust fund with that income by issuing GAS securities to the fund. The Treasury then uses the cash to finance the government’s ongoing activities. When revenues for a trust fund program fall short of expenses, the reverse happens: The Treasury redeems some of the GAS securities. The crediting and redemption of securities are intragovernmental transactions between the Treasury and trust funds, but both directly affect the amount of debt subject to the limit.

    On many days, the amount of outstanding GAS securities does not change much. However, that amount can fall noticeably when redemptions occur because of the payment of benefits under programs such as Social Security and Medicare. The Treasury normally offsets the redemption of GAS securities, which reduces the amount of debt subject to the limit, by borrowing additional amounts from the public to obtain the cash necessary to make benefit payments. In addition, most GAS securities pay interest to the funds holding them, and those payments are reinvested (if they are not needed to pay current benefits) in the form of additional securities.

    Both of these debt issues are at risk with a government shut down due to not raising the debt ceiling.
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  18. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Why did Uncle Jack say the 4th Q is the place where I think things go boom?

    The CBO estimates that unless the debt limit is increased, the Treasury, after using all available extraordinary measures, will probably be unable to make its usual payments starting sometime in the first quarter of the new fiscal year, most likely in October or November 2021, although an earlier or later date is possible. After that point, the debt limit would cause delays of payments for government activities, a default on the government’s debt obligations, or both.

    The gov'ts first fiscal gov't is Wall Street's 4th Q which begins October 1st.

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  19. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  20. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

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