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MY CLUBHOUSE THESIS: HYPERINFLATION IS CLOSE

Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Mar 11, 2021.

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  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    This is the best macro explanation I have seen on where we really are right now. What is said about the WEF/Canada/ and Australia should make all people stop and think. If you live in those countries you have made a big time mistake as a Black Swan.
     
    Richard Watson and JanSz like this.
  2. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    US Margin Debt reaches new all time high.........starting to unravel.

    [​IMG]

    10 yr TIPS are falling to the floor.
    Real yields have broken the lows. What might be next?

    [​IMG]
     
    John Schumacher and JanSz like this.
  3. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    More interest rate hikes last week: -Ukraine +50bps to 8.0% -Russia +100bps to 6.5%
     
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  4. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Minsky argued there is an inherent instability in financial markets. He postulated that abnormally long bullish cycles would spur an asymmetric rise in market speculation. That speculation would eventually result in market instability and collapse. Thus, a “Minsky Moment” crisis follows a prolonged period of bullish speculation, which is also associated with high amounts of debt taken on by both retail and institutional investors.

    One way to view “leverage” is through “margin debt,” and in particular, the level of “free cash” investors have to deploy. In periods of “high speculation,” investors are likely to take on excess leverage (borrow money) to invest, which leaves them with “negative” cash balances.

    If you are a long-term investor, it is becoming more critical to understand the risk you are undertaking. Likewise, if you are a trader, it is essential to determine what type of trader you are.

    “In terms of trading, more than ever, it’s important to remember that there are two kinds of traders:

    • Those who are humble.

    • Those who are going to be humbled.

      Become a HODLer




     
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  5. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    “Essential is the understanding of the role psychology plays in the formation and expansion of financial manias. From the 1711 ‘South Sea Bubble’ to the 2000 ‘Dot.com crash,’ all bubbles formed from a similar ‘panic’ by investors to chase ongoing speculation.”

    The problem for the Fed, as discussed, is they have now inflated multiple asset bubbles from which they cannot extricate themselves. If they try and “taper” monetary policy, the markets panic. With the entirety of the financial ecosystem more heavily levered than ever, the Fed’s most significant risk is the “instability of stability.”

    Ultimately, the Fed can choose to reverse monetary policy and navigate the fallout. Or, some exogenous event will eventually do it for them.


    QE sponsors bubbles and central banks are addicted to it

    The problem with addictions is the eventual “withdrawal fallout.”
     
    John Schumacher and JanSz like this.
  6. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    The manipulated yields going lower and lower lack signal for understanding the timing of the massive systemic risk that’s brewing in the global economy. Watch the CDS on Sovereign debt
     
    John Schumacher and JanSz like this.
  7. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    The curve is massively right shifted as of Jul. 29, 2021 443 days after the 3rd halving BTC at $39,973

    Catching up to the growth trajectory of the previous cycle will require a lot of juice (PoW)

    [​IMG]
     
    GavinH and John Schumacher like this.
  8. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    The politicians may have put Gensler in charge of the SEC but they are doing all they can to support the Fed and bankers. Did you see this?
    The new bipartisan infrastructure bill in the Senate includes new reporting obligations for #bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Please call your Senator regarding the infrastructure bill. US Senate switchboard: (202) 224-3121. You can use the language below

    I'm a constituent in your district and a supporter of you. The current draft infrastructure bill includes language that is detrimental to me as well as millions of Americans and businesses that buy, hold, sell and transact in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The category of persons who would be obligated to report is so broad that it potentially covers persons who only provide software or hardware to customers and who have no visibility whatsoever into users’ transactions. Please remove/modify the current language regarding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Thank you

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

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  10. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    If you’re scared of dying from a virus, but eat McDonald’s and drink coke every day you should vaccinate yourself with mRNA technology at once. For the rest of you become a Black Swan mitochondriac and you’ll be well in the control group. Learn how to use wealth to augment your health.


    Health and wealth are linked in many ways few consider. Inflation is a tax on the poor and a bonus for the wealthy……the same government that is portraying itself as the champion of the poor is working hard at spurring inflation helping their supposed enemy. They think you won’t connect the dots.


    Inflation is the surest way to fertilize the rich man's field with the sweat of the poor man's brow.


    From 1990-2018, trophy NYC real estate increased in value 500% against wheat & 300% against electricity. See the Cantillon Effect.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    China #Evergrande Group, the most indebted developer in China slides 4.6% in HK after S&P Global Ratings warned of a potential downward spiral. Evergrande’s liquidity position is eroding more quickly and by more than we previously expected = credit markets breaking
     
    John Schumacher likes this.
  12. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    There's a reason England doesn't have any social media companies There's a reason France doesn't have much of a financial services industry If the White House gets its way, there will be a reason that America doesn't have a crypto industry
     
    John Schumacher and JanSz like this.
  13. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    BITCOIN PUMPING ON NEWS OF GOVERNMENT INCOMPETENCE

    I won’t ever sell my bitcoins because I can’t morally justify paying half of my gains to this government in taxes


    Plan is to out-hodl the IRS
     
  14. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    With every new flood or outbreak of swine fever or variant, creation pushes the PRC draws closer to lashing out as shipping is slowed during a massive monsoon season. They are the only superpower in the world that right now is struggling to feed itself. It is also going through a massive credit crunch. In 2 more months, the world will be engulfed in variant carnival lockdowns.
     
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  15. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Pretty epic New blog out today: Nature’s codes are buried in biological systems and are adjacent to the Shannon limit.
    Bitcoin takes money closer to the Shannon limit.
    Humans gather knowledge faster than wisdom. This is why they often toss aside the precaution principle when they are in data collection mode.
    https://www.patreon.com/posts/51845596
     
  16. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Credit bubbles are always easy to discern - huge growth in credit while savings collapse. Today, credit in the US went up 2.72 Trillion dollars while savings declined.

    Guess what you are in?

    I hope you got enough air in the life raft.
     
  17. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Treasury incompetence: You'll be seeing more reports that tapering is coming. And more claims that inflation is transitory. This should be given the same credibility as recent assurances on Afghanistan. Same people, same playbook. Scales fell from some eyes in the past few days. That's good for BTC.
     
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  18. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Is the Afghanistan episode of 2021 similar to the Countrywide episode of 2007?
    Today in the Financial Crisis: 15 AUG 2007 Countrywide is forced to draw on emergency lines of credit. But sure, the September 2008 crisis appeared out of nowhere and the Fed/Treasury can't be blamed for it.
    https://money.cnn.com/2007/08/16/news/companies/countrywide/index.htm

    I think CCP will harvest the minerals from Afghanistan and this will rebuild the country spreading good tidings in Asia which will spill into the middle East and soon oil will sold in CBDCyuan and not Fed dollars = lead to fiat collapse
     
    Sean Waters, GavinH, caroline and 3 others like this.
  19. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Seriously bad MoM housing starts and mortgage applications news. Tack on the cleanest data in the report: Single-family building permits slid for a fourth consecutive month to the lowest level in a year. How’s that for a (not) validating vote on housing’s prospects. And no, it’s not just an input cost impediment when peering over the horizon. If you go back to the beginning of this thread or the early BTC series the housing collapse comes in quarter 4.
     
  20. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

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