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MY CLUBHOUSE THESIS: HYPERINFLATION IS CLOSE

Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Mar 11, 2021.

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  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  2. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Why buy BTC? Look at what the Bank of America says: "the Fed is spending $336 million every 60 minutes buying bonds, while the US government spends $875 million every hour this year" But inflation is transitory. LOL
     
  3. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    GavinH, JanSz and ND Hauf like this.
  4. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    In the post-QE era, velocity has crashed, and now trends with the Wu-Xia Shadow Fed Funds Rate, as you see in the chart below. These charts are the stuff of central banker nightmares.

    [​IMG]
     
    JanSz and GavinH like this.
  5. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Equilibrium rates--or R*--is negative globally now: The banking system is now bleeding out as I mentioned in the BTC blog series early on in its course
     
    JanSz and GavinH like this.
  6. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Joe Biden: "There's nobody suggesting there's unchecked inflation is on the way. No serious economist."

    1. Larry Summers and Bill Dudley have been suggesting it almost weekly for months.
    2. If unchecked inflation is not on the way, Biden better start preparing his version of a "Nixon August surprise" speech to nominally default on either US Treasury holders or 70m Baby Boomers' Entitlements
    3. The shit is about to hit the fan folks.
    4. Might this be why we have some Yellen haste over stablecoin regulation?
     
    caroline, GavinH, DebraGM and 2 others like this.
  7. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Leon Cooperman on @CNBC this AM:
    “Debt is growing too rapidly; it’s not sustainable” And: “The most dangerous instrument to buy is the long-term US government bond” When this video is posted it will go viral.
     
  8. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    John Schumacher and JanSz like this.
  9. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

  10. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    JanSz likes this.
  11. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Listen to what he says about the risks of cash in the bank:



    I agree with him. Bad mojo is coming. Banks go boom and the CBDC is the new out card.

    The Fed will control the inflation narrative. They will not be able to control the credit narrative.
     
    GavinH, John Schumacher and JanSz like this.
  12. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    I am 100% confident we have never seen financial risks on this scale in July 2021:
    Valuation Speculation
    Liquidity
    Breadth
    Deflation in the US (negative rates) turning into global hyperinflation overnight as credit markets collapse
    Geopolitics
    Lockdown/virus
    IPO issuance
    Politics/bailout
    Stimulus buffer

    Skew indicates the smart money is worried. Another lockdown in this market is a smoking crater. The COVID variant excuse will be used as the rouse for credit collapse that takes the market down. US real estate is a powder keg

    [​IMG]
     
    GavinH and JanSz like this.
  13. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Some good news? M2 YOY % change is down to about 13%, from a peak of 27%.

    [​IMG]
     
    JanSz likes this.
  14. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    We'll see if there are any more fiscal shifts from variants to drive this number going forward. Will it be 1970's inflation or WW2 level inflation?
     
    JanSz likes this.
  15. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    While M2 is dropping bank loans haven't kept up with bank deposits. They are only lending to the US govt via the Fed.

    [​IMG]
     
    GavinH and Johan Lindstrøm like this.
  16. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Monetary inflation is now around 25% down from 42% but the money supply per capita is growing at a 10-15% annualized pace currently. So it is still a big chronic concern.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Fiat makes war affordable; Bitcoin makes war too expensive.
     
  18. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    $111,000,000 of shorts liquidated in 10 minutes tonight.
     
  19. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    More signs inflation is moving from transitory to more structural factors below

    Zillow: "Rent growth maintained widespread momentum in June, with Zillow Observed Rent Index up 1.8% m/o/m...y/o/y rent growth up 7.1%, largest annual increase in series’ history reaching back to '15...rents have risen 5.1% since March, fastest quarterly growth in Zillow’s data."

    This could also be part of a one-year surge, but this seems like it is slowly morphing into something more structural as wages will need to rise to offset the permanently higher costs for consumers.

    Housing prices are not part of CPI but rents are. The Fed looks at core PCE, but rents are there too (in the form of OER)
     
  20. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    "You think at some point they would analyze the situation. Instead, the ECB said negative rates are good, let's do more."
    The number one job of the FED is to maintain public confidence in their banking system, and this can only be done by outright lying and finessing the inflation conversation and statistics.
    They will use markets, journalists, propaganda, fake news, and lies to support themselves.
     
    John Schumacher and ND Hauf like this.
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