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How to value BTC?

Discussion in 'The Kruse Longevity Center' started by Jack Kruse, Apr 6, 2021.

  1. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    What Is the Relative Strength Index of BTC (RSI)?
    The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100. The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems."

    Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.

    The relative strength index (RSI) is computed with a two-part calculation that starts with the following formula:
    RSI (step one) = 100 − [1+Average loss/Average gain100]

    The average gain or loss used in the calculation is the average percentage gain or loss during a look-back period. The formula uses a positive value for the average loss.

    The standard is to use 14 periods to calculate the initial RSI value. For example, imagine the market closed higher seven out of the past 14 days with an average gain of 1%. The remaining seven days all closed lower with an average loss of -0.8%. The calculation for the first part of the RSI would look like the following expanded calculation:

    55.55 = 100 − [100/(1%/14)(−0.8%/14)]

    Once there are 14 periods of data available, the second part of the RSI formula can be calculated. The second step of the calculation smooths the results.

    RSI (step two)=100−[100/ 1+(Previous Average Gain×13) + Current Gain/((Previous Average Loss×13) + Current Loss)]

    Currently, the RSI of Bitcoin is 71.7. We entered 2021 at an RSI of 90.

    During the Bull Markets of 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI was above 95 for at least 3 months.

    As you can see we are still a long way from that in 2021. This Bull Market still has huge opportunities to offer all those who believe in Bitcoin.

    The moment you doubt whether BTC can fly, you cease forever to be able to watch it do it.
    caroline and John Schumacher like this.
  2. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

  3. @JanSz - Thank you for sharing!
    Details like these are the simple explanation of what could be done.

    Currently for me, I'm able to live in a home, because I own it. I do not have the extract income to pay a mortgage nor cover the cost of rent.
    Since my mRNA heritage past away in their 30rds and 40rds from CVD and cancers (+)plus I have had hypertension for 30 years, I may not have much longer on this planet earth.
    Thus I retired August 2020, so that my wife will have my retirement after I pass (this is a big if - since California PERS Retirement System could collapse) <- this I have no control over.
    However that plays out, we (my wife & I) are living on 60% less than what I was making will working. We are able to pull this off because we don't have a mortgage.
    I have converted all I have saved into GBTC back at the beginning of January 2021. All our cash savings went into BlockFi the beginning of February 2021.
    We are not comfortable with renting out rooms of our home in order to raise cash for Bitcoin purchases.
    Bitcoin does not make money to live on. It has value, if you don't need it daily and allow it to sit for 10 years.

    @Jack Kruse has made himself available for consults; however, I'm still working on recovering from the one consult I had with him September 2020. A $1,000 dollar expense takes a long time to accumulate.
    Last edited: May 5, 2021
    JanSz likes this.
  4. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    The worst part is what you have posted is the assumption about when you are going to die.
    Unless you are planning to take your own life, that is absolutely impossible to predict.
    My DW (God bless her soul) was rather healthy. She started as a professional athlete (ballerina), was 6 years younger than me.
    She died way way prematurely. I am still kicking around, no sports at all. Hopefully, I will see my 81 st birthday in a few days.
    Now have a girlfriend, 20.5 years younger than me.
    When doing my financial analysis, I (and now my girlfriend) am assuming that we will live forever.
    Then, I also do not occupy my mind with what will happen to any leftovers.
    Note that that kind of perspective makes me spend even less but gives me peace of mind.

    Good thing you did by quitting working.
    I will rather be bored and having time to lie on the grass (the beach is too far) and letting the sun see my balls.
    It does not bother me that I can't afford to join Jack at PDC or another nice place.

    I want @Jack Kruse to discuss the topic of taking one's life.
    But this is on the assumption that the person is in great discomfort that can't be helped.

    That would not apply to, say, my DW.
    She was otherwise in super heavy pain, but that was under control. She had a clear mind to the last and will to live.

    But my next-door neighbor does not know that he lives for the last about 4 years.
    "Lucky" for him, he has a lovely wife and apartment in Manhattan on the other side of the street where his doctor has an office.
    That way, his wife can wheel him to the doctor.

    The other guy in the family was almost 2 years in the hospice without being aware that he lives.

    Tomorrow is the wake of our 64 y friend.
    She was not super healthy, her weakness was her kidneys.
    Aneurism did her in unexpectedly.

    Last edited: May 5, 2021
    Brent Patrick likes this.
  5. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    When one thinks of Bitcoin, that is a good way of thinking about it.
    when assigning $$ for a Bitcoin purchase,
    first think how you are going to live for 10 years before you benefit from being smart and buying Bitcoin.
    And maybe it is going to be less than 10 years, maybe only 9.95 years.

    John Schumacher and caroline like this.
  6. caroline

    caroline Moderator

    That is the only way to look at it Jan - for us retired folks......for now anyway. I am still looking for a plan B!

    This is such an amazing opportunity for younger people.
  7. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Amazing is the right word. Young (or not) is in our heads. Let us stay young.
    First things first, let us have a few good orgasms, that helps to set priorities on the right track, especially when properly grounded and fully seen by the Sun.

    Last edited: May 5, 2021
    Pablo and John Schumacher like this.
  8. caroline

    caroline Moderator

    You are a remarkable man Jan! You are so right - we only have this moment......so the more orgasms, more sun, and more grounded the better.

    I guess I want my cake and eat it too!

    I am just not happy about the fact that the taxman will tax us on increased bitcoin assets - even when sitting in a hard wallet.

    Fair enough - if you sell a portion of bitcoin - you trigger a tax event and pay CGT.

    But - if it is just sitting there........... can I just say - wtf
  9. Aussie Chris

    Aussie Chris New Member

    Hi Caroline,
    I don't think that crypto is taxed just by holding it. It only appears to be taxed when a capital gains event is triggered (in Australia anyway). Buying and holding does not trigger a CG event, and therefore, is not taxed. Though if you sell, trade, or use it to buy goods or services, a CG event is triggered and you'll be taxed.
    Chantelle likes this.
  10. Chantelle

    Chantelle New Member

    You are so right! I don't have bitcoin, savings, property or even my full health back; I do have orgasms and sun and someone to love. I am most of the way there in my books. I would love if my business could take bitcoin payments.
  11. Happy early Birthday ! ;) May you and your girlfriend celebrate !
    Not working is a new thing for me; I've worked a minimum of 60 hours a week for fifty years.
    Learning to relax in the sun all day long has been very difficult for me to adjust to. I typically got outside during breaks from work - for sunrise therapy, walks in nature and noon time exercise routines. I too don't get out the the beach. It's about a three hour drive to the nearest beach. However, my backyard is perfect for full sun exposure. I printout my studies and read from morning to late afternoon.
    I have no intention of dying soon. My first profession was in management of restaurants, my second was in management of IT departments; my hopes are I will manage a health-care clinic incorporating my fifty years of "health" practice. So that's what I'm studying; however, I don't have a pre-med undergrad; I have a BS in Computer Science; so I have a lot of catching up to do.
    My family health history is poor; so I determined fifty years ago to do something about it, and practice what I learn along the way. It has been great to see @Jack Kruse has found the same practices as I have had.
    No guarantees... When I was in my mid-thirties while acting director of IT for a command at Mare Island, I was on travel a lot. Sitting next to me has a MD on an airline flight, so I began to tell him -> I eat mostly fish and vegetables, see every sunrise, exercise a noon, etc. He asked if how long would I like to live. My reply was at least to 125, please. He said to me (30 years ago) - "We get our longevity genes from our grandparents." For me, that meant I was near my genetic end-of-life, since they died in their 30rds and 40rds. However, he then said, "I see a lot of sick people who are miserable. If you die before you expect, don't be disappointed. You seem to enjoy life. Keep doing that."
    Last edited: May 5, 2021
  12. You're almost there -> you've got love & a lover.
    My lovely bride and I are married 40 years this coming June 6th. It's been great growing old together. It's worth it -> making it happen.
    Your health may take patience. Be kind to yourself. Perfection is not required.
    Chantelle likes this.
  13. caroline

    caroline Moderator

    bitcoin increases our assets. We have various pensions and income streams etc.
  14. Aussie Chris

    Aussie Chris New Member

    Aah, of course. My mistake. I guess that would be the case with any asset that increases in value, not just BTC.
  15. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    The worst part is to stay poor
    of envy to not to enrich Taxman.

    OTOH make dam sure that you are not paying more taxes than you have to.

    About orgasms, especially in NZ and AU.
    With time many of us, if not most, boys and girls, need some tweaks to have them. I definitely need that help since 1997.
    Most doctors are clueless about how to do it, the few want your hide in exchange for (most often not always)(questionable) help.
    In the USA only testosterone needs a doctor's script. In NZ and AU, all hormones need a script.
    And, with (a doctor that had a clue) I have likely had a good chance to avoid my 1997 crisis.
    This day's doctors are so brainwashed that they are not able to help their own Mothers.
    Last edited: May 6, 2021
    caroline and John Schumacher like this.
  16. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Just to make life practical (and less stressful).
    When I was in Brazil in 1979/80 there was about 30% inflation.
    Prices for stuff were changing daily or from morning to evening.
    Brazilians were paid weekly in Cruzeiro.
    Americans need Cruzeiros to buy stuff for daily living.
    We would exchange our money weekly.
    I can treat Bitcoin/US$ the same way.
    I pay with credit cards, rarely use cash, then credit card bills I pay with a checking account.
    If I really want I can hold all I have in Bitcoins and once monthly sell enough just to cover monthly expenses.

    With (much) more work, I can watch the price of Bitcoin and sell a month's worth of it on a good day.
    John Schumacher likes this.
  17. What I've been hoping for is a way for Bitcoin to generate an income - enough to cover basic monthly expenditures - without selling any of the Bitcoin "bank".
    caroline likes this.
  18. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Really this is about choices.
    Just be aware that there are choices.
    You can have a cake on one plate.
    Vacation to xyz on another plate.
    Make your informed choice,
    Latter find out if that was a smart choice.
    Rinse repeat but with additional knowledge of how your previous choices turned out to be.
    If you make your choices on monthly frequency at first it maybe fun, latter you may get tired of high frequency.

    I had to work on my routine since June 1997, when I quit working.
    Just sharing my experiences.
    Last edited: May 6, 2021
    caroline and John Schumacher like this.
  19. caroline

    caroline Moderator

    Of course we have choices .....but I want to make the best possible choices.

    I hate making dumb moves - but we have to be playing with a full deck to make the best decisions. I already make one moderately stupid mistake and luckily, it is somewhat correctable.

    I have been thinking about our life a lot lately. We don't need a lot of money for daily living. We have everything we need and enjoying our life to the max.

    But still ........bitcoin gives us all kinds of possibilities for the future.

    For each of us ....this day/moment could be our last and we don't know what the future holds.

    Lets enjoy the sun on our body and the sand between our toes and all the love and laughter in our daily lives.
  20. caroline

    caroline Moderator

    Yes ........I feel like I am between a rock and a hard place. We live very comfortably now but inflation will eat away all our pensions and income streams.

    This would be the same for everyone - in some form?

    If you hold bitcoin and it is increasing .......your assets are increasing and you are paying more income tax?

    If you are still working - you are being paid in devalued fiat currency.

    I guess we are all in the same boat unless we move to Costa Rica, or the Caymans.

    Are the Caymans still totally tax free? I remember hearing years ago that the U.S. government could bring pressure to bare on the Cayman's and force disclosure of bank accounts.

    If we were to buy BTC on a foreign exchange .....how would that work?
    Last edited: May 7, 2021
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