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Corona - how does it affect your life?

Discussion in 'The Cave' started by Inger, Mar 17, 2020.

  1. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Who is in that category?
    It looks to me that it addresses a very small population that was already in a rather deep dodo before COVID-19 virus discussion even started.
    I have just responded to Peter.
    if you agree with my assesment?
    I am trying to make a summary of the situation that we are in.
    Hopefully, this will work.
    We all eventually will get exposure to the corona COVID-19 virus.
    All who were exposed will get AntiBodies. (Not really sure here).
    Most will live through it, without realizing it.
    Some will get sick, basically going through influenza.
    Few people (that initially were in poor health) will die.
    we have a pool of people in poor health, and only some of them are in grave danger.
    But instead
    everybody and their brothers clog hospitals. And that scare has created the current problem.
    I say, poor health, that would be by definition of MD
    but not
    by @Jack Kruse definition (who is MD).
    For Jack, just about everybody is sick, or most precisely, everybody could improve his circumstances when listening to his advice.
    When looking for a better definition of poor health (that could be used for coronavirus circumstances)
    that would be someone who is a few steps away from having sepsis.
    Looking for suggestions on
    how to figure that (very small) group.

    I suspect that you are not in that group.
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  2. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    If you agree with what I posted on my previous post
    calling hero
    doctors and policemen
    who are doing their job
    just raises (unnecessary) panic.

  3. Saichi

    Saichi New Member

    More Scaremongering - Let's Do FACTS

    CNBC is at it again with the "oh no, the hospitals will overload!"

    Folks, here are the facts in the US:

    1. About 15% of the tested are positive. To be tested you must be symptomatic (or have a lot of money and/or power) Note that the test has a roughly 30% false negative rate (you're positive, it misses it) so none of these cases wind up being considered for admission as Coronavirus cases. These presumably all recover without admission, plus all those who are true negatives.

    2. Of that 15% which test positive 12% (CDC numbers) meet criteria to be hospitialized. Note that of these exactly zero require an actual hospital bed at that stage; oral medication and monitoring every few hours can be done anywhere, by anyone.

    3. Of the 12% about one quarter wind up requiring an ICU. Now we're truly in the "hospital required" category. Invasive procedures (vent, whether positive pressure mask or intubation) or critical monitoring (e.g. heartbeat, SpO2 on an "always-on" rather than spot-check basis, etc) This is also where artificial feeding and hydration come into it because you literally have no choice; with a positive pressure vent required to breathe or a tube down your throat you can neither eat or drink so a tube for that goes SOMEWHERE.

    4. Of those who went on vents in Wuhan 95% did not survive. That is, the "save" rate if you got there was five percent. We do not know what it is here, but the "base" save rate for a vent in a US hospital from all causes is right at 50% to discharge and 30% one-year survival (vents invariably produce fairly serious damage to the victim and you frequently die not long after that.) It is laughable that our hospitals can approach their "stock" 50% save rate - even if we're twice as good as the Chinese, which isn't implausible, our save rate is only 10%.

    So of those who meet the criteria to be tested in the US today (by definition if you wind up in the hospital with KungFlu you're going to get tested) 0.45% of those people wind up in intensive care (0.15 * 0.12 * 0.25) = 0.45%.

    Except.... that's not the real rate. Note that the test misses 30% of positives. So those people are positive, but don't end up in the numbers (they go home and recover.)

    So among the positives that wind up in the ICU are (0.12 * 0.7) * 0.24 = 2.0%.

    Current estimates on the worst-case end that nine out of ten people do not develop symptoms sufficient to meet current testing criteria. Therefore, of those who contract Coronavirus the percentage of those who wind up in an ICU is 0.2%, approximately.

    By the way -- this clowns the "2% fatality rate" figure instantly. Fatality is some fraction of the 0.2%, in other words. But no, the media (obviously) cannot do multiplication -- we're talking grade school math here folks.

    Incidentally that "9 out of 10" is probably low -- perhaps by a factor of 10 or even more There is reason to believe, specifically, the Oxford paper, that the true rate positives compared with those who are sick enough to get a test is 100:1, not 10:1. That's plausible given what we already know; among a very old population on the Diamond Princess they still only had 306 symptomatics out of 3,711 persons on board. It's implausible the others on board were not exposed, which means either (1) they previously had the virus -- possibly on the cruise -- and recovered asymptomatically, thus testing negative or (2) R0 is wildly wrong, particularly considering that some of the "pairs" include couples in the same cabin where only one of them got sick and the other tested negative.

    That would make the fatality rate 0.02%.

    Everyone who does not require ICU care requires no hospital at all; we can provide drugs, we can provide at-home monitoring of SpO2, we can provide at-home monitoring of BP and heart rate and temperature and we can provide at-home supplemental oxygen. All of these are trivial to do and cheap. Such data can be transmitted in or care-givers can be given thresholds where transport is actually required.

    Keeping people out of the hospital when no actual intensive, "always on" care is required improves outcomes; you immediately remove all the instances of hospital-acquired infections, for one, and if you're already fighting a virus the last thing you need is an infection you acquire in the hospital on top of it. If said person lives alone with nobody willing and able to help (e.g. nobody seropositive and thus immune) then we may well need someone for them to be, but it doesn't have to be what you think of as a "hospital."

    Now let's face facts: If you wind up on a vent in the ICU with this virus you are almost-certain to die. That probability is almost-certainly less than or equal to 95% but materially greater than 50%. The hospitals aren't publishing those numbers (gee, I wonder why?) but you can bet the odds suck. Let's call it 90% failure.

    Ok, so now of the cases, assuming we have 100 who get infected but do not qualify for a test for everyone who does we can change the outcome of 0.002% of the cases by not overloading the medical system.

    Because the outcome is so bad if you wind up on a vent we must be extremely aggressive in trying to prevent that. We have evidence, but not scientific proof, that a number of said therapies (e.g. hydroxychloroquine, etc) are effective. Exactly how beneficial is not known but avoiding the ICU, given the stats, is the key to not being dead. We have to use what we've got; any improvement is better than none, and while I'm sure there is a range of effectiveness for what is being tried until something proves better you use what you got.

    Let's say that out of the 330 million people in the US 70% will eventually get the infection. I have no reason to doubt this. The idea that we can actually repress math is laughable. The idea that we're going to get a vaccine with persistent immunity is contrary to every piece of science on coronaviruses to date, both in humans and animals. The data in fact does not support any other conclusion; either this thing is not nearly as transmissible as we think it is (unlikely), the percentage of people who have or have gotten "silent" infections is outrageously high or the range of people who cannot get it for some other reason (e.g. cross or natural immunity) or some combination of those elements has to be true. Diamond Princess along with South Korea, Japan and Italy all demonstrate this conclusively. Anyone arguing otherwise is arguing against all of the existing data.

    So we have 230,100,000 people who get this thing (immunity level is reached by whatever means) before it's over in the United States.

    230,100,000 * 0.002% = 4,602.

    Of those we can change the outcome from dead to not-dead by not overloading the hospitals in 4,602 instances. Maybe.

    We just took a 30% stock market crash and destroyed the jobs of over 3 million people in the last week over what looks like 4,602 possible lives saved.

    Now maybe that estimate is very low. But even on the higher end of reason for silent or minimally-symptomatic attack; that is, 1 in 10 people get ill enough to meet testing criteria rather than 1 in 100 we're talking less than a moderate flu season's excess mortality.

    For reference approximately 8,000 people die every single day in the United States.

    We took an intentional depression in what appears to be an attempt to save less than a day's mortality. Will suicides exceed this when you throw five to ten million, maybe even twenty million people out of work -- three million last week alone?

    In other words for those who say "any sacrifice is worth it for even one life" you're the ******* because you're killing more people than you're saving.

    Stop the stupid folks.
    JanSz likes this.
  4. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Everyone who does not require ICU care requires no hospital at all;
    Doctors, MD's
    why are you quiet?
    There are so many of you here.

    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  5. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Do not tell anyone.
    Sun another type of chemtrails will start.
    That will be done at night.

  6. Inger

    Inger Silver

    I just watched a diagram over the total deaths in different countries, and it has not raised any, since corona.
    That tells a lot. Not more people are dying than before. The ones that were dying anyway just die of corona. Or?

    I cant watch the news anymore. It is just too much.

    I mean, I am all in for taking action to not spread the virus too fast, and protect the vulnerable, but this goes too far now. Like, people are not allowed to go to their cottages in Scandinavia, and streets are being cut off with concrete blocks. That is insane.

    Also that old people are dying lonely and isolated, instead of holding hands with their loved ones, that is not humane in my opinion.
    Maybe I am wrong. But something feels off in my belly.
  7. Sue-UK

    Sue-UK New Member

    In the context of the social measures put in place in the UK, if the the overall monthly death rate does not go up, or even goes down slightly temporarily, it may be the result of far less travel on the roads, less knife crime etc. It may increase as time goes on, if the social measures go on so long that we see a rise in things like suicide etc.

    The other problem of looking at the data is that the overall death rate figures aren't just for the ones that who might be expected to die anyway. Coronavirus is now spreading to those who would not have been expected to die at this time, including those in the front line emergency services. With strict social measures in place, there will presumably be a reduction in road accidents, work related accidents etc, and "normal" flu deaths, but most types of death that make up a country's death rate in a typical month does not put the emergency services at the same risk as this virus does. :(
    caroline, Inger and JanSz like this.
  8. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    I would like to see additional information posted simultaneously with coronavirus death rate figures.
    The least important may be the age of diseased.
    The most important health status few weeks before dying.
    This is likely THE most important part, because there are some young people who are also dying but their life style is terrible and they are few days away from heart attacks or stroke or similar and the fact that they die just creates confussion in statistics.




    Hospitals are overwhelmed by scared people who do not have coronavirus.
    Listen to initial JK advice.
    Do not go to the hospital unless sick for longer than 2 weeks or not able to hold the breath for longer than 10 seconds.
    Do not reduce fever unless over 40C=104F
    Real problem is that a quick test for a virus is not available.
    Have to occupy the hospital bed until results come a week later or longer.
    Today is 3/30/2020 7:43 EST

    Dr Oz response to question on the picture.
    When suspecting virus first
    free of the fever for 3 days
    and any other symptoms for three days
    7 days since initiation of disease
    then we think that you are not infectious anymore
    That captures wast majority.

    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
    Alex97232 and Inger like this.
  9. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    Alex97232 and Inger like this.
  10. Inger

    Inger Silver

    yes. this is so true. I do not like it anymore.

    I usually never watch the news, and i do not have a TV.
    Now because of the corona, I have watched the news on internet a lot! And now I realize, it just makes me feel ill. They paint the picture they want, with how they choose to speak, pictures they choose to show etc etc.

    Guess what - I realized media is not at all after the reality/truth, when they did the documentary in german TV about me eating raw meat.
    They just cut the stuff they wanted, into it - not what I had told.
    Like, I showed them my oysters, and what else I eat in a day, and not only raw meat.. but they just ignored it. What they want is, to make some sensation and shocking people. I am so done with it right now.
    Maybe I am too soft. :oops:

    Also, is it a wonder that many get sick from the virus? Imagine how scared people are of the sun!
    And they have vit D deficiency, almost all, and then they just pop a vitD pill and think that will help...
    In fact it is a wonder that not more people get very ill.
    caroline and Alex97232 like this.
  11. Inger

    Inger Silver

    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  12. Sue-UK

    Sue-UK New Member

    In the UK if someone dies with coronavirus, that is what it will be recorded as on the death certificate, although it will also put if its involved with any other diagnosis. It can become a government statistic of a coronavirus death of someone with an underlying vulnerability. The other statistic could be a coronavirus death of someone without a known vulnerability or health condition. If its not going to change the clinical decisions taken in emergency situations, then its an additional burden on the frontline health service to gather that information. We also risk it being the public deciding what is a "terrible lifestyle" and whose fault is it .... :eek:

    Unlike say the death of an athlete having a heart attack during an endurance race, or unexpected death in a young person with no visible signs of impending risk, where autopsies would be expected, in the current coronavirus crisis it would also put a huge burden on the health services to perform autopsies on everyone who didn't come under the known vulnerability group. In the aftermath of sepsis, I think that would be very difficult to conclusively prove anyway.
  13. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    This is how people used to look like.

    This is how policeman looks like 10 minutes ago:


    There was a fire at the end of my street.
    More than 20 firefighters came to the rescue.
    Not even one of those 20 was lest than 250#
    some had easily over 300#
    What may be happening when a person like that caches COVID-19?

    Alex97232 likes this.
  14. YuriyDorogoy

    YuriyDorogoy New Member

    Marko Pollo likes this.
  15. Sue-UK

    Sue-UK New Member

    There would have been lower rates of obesity in 1918. In terms of numbers, Robert Lustig MD is quite interesting

    "Only 1 in 8 Americans are achieving optimal metabolic health. Reference: https://unc.edu/posts/2018/11/28/only-12-percent-of-american-adults-are-metabolically-healthy-carolina-study-finds/…

    The inclusive model of obesity and metabolic dysfunction is portrayed in this Venn diagram. Note: There are more sick thin people than overweight (out of total population)."

    Alex97232 and JanSz like this.
  16. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    How would that apply to me?
    Is this about being exposed to TB vaccine or possession of TB antibodies?

    I was raised in Poland.
    IIRC the vaccination in my area happened around 1950. Possibly slightly earlier.
    People were divided into three categories.

    Those who had TB
    Those who had been exposed to TB (and fought it off)(I was in that category)
    Those who have not been exposed to TB (and will get the vaccine).

    So, when checked I had an indication of having TB antibodies.
    Also on X-ray I had come calcification on my lungs (as expected).

    Overall, I was not vaccinated against TB because they found TB antibodies.
    Alex97232 and YuriyDorogoy like this.
  17. JanSz

    JanSz Gold

    CIA Whistleblower Speaks Out
    Tripvan likes this.
  18. Jack Kruse

    Jack Kruse Administrator

    Leaders are never born, they are created. We each come to create the reality we believe we deserve. The first responsibility of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you. In between, the leader is a servant to others. When your actions inspire others to dream larger, learn more, do more, and become more, then you arrive as a leader. Whatever you become, do it well.

    An update on current Case Fatality Rates (CFR) for 3/31/20:
    USA: 1.9%
    Italy: 11.8%
    Spain: 8.7%
    China: 4%
    Germany: 0.9%
    Iran: 6.5%
    France: 6.8%
    UK: 7.1%
    Switzerland: 2.4%
    Canada: 1.2%

    Here you see the zip code effect I have taught to all my Black Swans....https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-more-important-today-your-light-zip-code-dnarna-jack-kruse/
    "Truth" is a fluid concept, at best a misnomer when you understand the difference between knowledge wisdom and insight.
    Here is our irony: Man is the only creature intelligent enough to think themselves to death. In order to pursue greatness we first have to understand where our source of greatness lies. It is in the quality of our thoughts. The truth only irritates those it enlightens. An expert problem solver for nature’s recipes must be endowed with two incompatible qualities – a restless imagination and a patient pertinacity. We must pursue these thoughts. I try never to be irritated by the truth but to engage with enthusiasm and good cheer in the pursuit of authentic knowledge and genuine wisdom. I don't care what the truth turns out to be, I want to know the truth. I have no fears or reservations about where nature's truths may lead me.
    caroline and crix like this.
  19. Saichi

    Saichi New Member

    The current flu season is now winding down. These are the Preliminary Burden Estimates for the 2019-2020 Flu Season from the CDC.

    Note that the figures for these four categories are only mid-line compared to the CDC estimate ranges.

    Influenza-Related from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020:

    TOTAL ILLNESSES: 46,000,000
    MEDICAL VISITS: 22,000,000
    DEATHS: 43,000 (including 100 children)

    [link to www.cdc.gov]

    Here are the U.S. COVID-19 stats as of March 31, 2020:

    TOTAL ILLNESSES: 175,669
    DEATHS: 3,424

    [link to www.worldometers.info]
  20. Saichi

    Saichi New Member

    2017-18 season per CDC 900,000 Americans hospitalized of which 80,000 died.

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